{"id":39694,"date":"2026-03-10T15:58:48","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T15:58:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/39694\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T15:58:48","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T15:58:48","slug":"%e5%b8%8c%e5%a7%86%e5%ba%ab%e6%96%af%e6%95%a6%e4%bf%83%e5%9c%a8%e6%ad%90%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e6%9c%83%e8%ad%b0%e5%89%8d%e4%bf%9d%e6%8c%81%e5%86%b7%e9%9d%9c%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%a6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/39694\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5e0c\u59c6\u5eab\u65af\u6566\u4fc3\u5728\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u4fdd\u6301\u51b7\u975c\uff0c\u4e26\u8b66\u544a\u52ff\u5c0d\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u5c40\u52e2\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u904e\u5ea6\u53cd\u61c9"},"content":{"rendered":"\u7acb\u9676\u5b9b\u592e\u884c\u884c\u9577\u3001\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u662f\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff09\u7ba1\u7406\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u6210\u54e1\u7684 Gediminas Simkus 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Lagarde\uff09\u3002\n\n\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\uff08QE\uff0c\u6307\u592e\u884c\u300c\u5275\u9020\u66f4\u591a\u8ca8\u5e63\u300d\u53bb\u8cb7\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u6216\u516c\u53f8\u50b5\uff1b\u7528\u610f\u662f\u58d3\u4f4e\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u3001\u523a\u6fc0\u501f\u8cb8\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\uff09\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u8b93\u6b50\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u3002\u9019\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u66fe\u5728 2009\u201311\u30012015 \u4ee5\u53ca\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u4f7f\u7528\u904e\u3002\n\n\u91cf\u5316\u7dca\u7e2e\uff08QT\uff0c\u8207\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\u76f8\u53cd\uff1a\u592e\u884c\u505c\u6b62\u65b0\u589e\u8cb7\u50b5\uff0c\u4e26\u505c\u6b62\u628a\u5230\u671f\u50b5\u5238\u56de\u6536\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u518d\u6295\u5165\uff1b\u7b49\u65bc\u9010\u6b65\u7e2e\u6e1b\u8cc7\u7522\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u8cc7\u91d1\uff09\u901a\u5e38\u5c0d\u6b50\u5143\u8f03\u6709\u5229\u3002\n\n\u76ee\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u89e3\u8b80 ECB 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\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u77ed\u671f\u300c\u50f5\u6301\u300d\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\n\n<h3>\u5e02\u5834\u90e8\u4f4d\u8207\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u5f71\u97ff<\/h3>\n\u4f46\u82e5\u5371\u6a5f\u52a0\u6df1\uff0c\u5c0d\u7269\u50f9\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8feb\u4f7f ECB \u6539\u8b8a\u505a\u6cd5\u3002\u6211\u5011\u770b\u5230\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\uff08Brent crude futures\uff1a\u4ee5\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u70ba\u6a19\u7684\u3001\u7d04\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u4ea4\u5272\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff095 \u6708\u4ea4\u5272\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u4e0a\u6f32\u8d85\u904e 8%\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u89f8\u53ca\u6bcf\u6876 95 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\u70ba ICE Futures Europe\uff08\u6d32\u969b\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u6b50\u6d32\u671f\u8ca8\u5e02\u5834\uff09\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u901a\u81a8\u58d3\u529b\u4ee3\u8868\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u50f9\u5916\u6b50\u5143\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08out-of-the-money call\uff1a\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u524d\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u8f03\u4fbf\u5b9c\uff1b\u7528\u4f86\u7576\u4fdd\u96aa\uff09\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u5c0d\u6c96\uff08hedge\uff1a\u7528\u53e6\u4e00\u7b46\u4ea4\u6613\u964d\u4f4e\u98a8\u96aa\uff09ECB \u610f\u5916\u8f49\u5411\u66f4\u9df9\u6d3e\uff08hawkish\uff1a\u504f\u5411\u5347\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u58d3\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\n\n\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\uff0c\u885d\u7a81\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u50b7\u5bb3\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f ECB \u63a1\u53d6\u66f4\u652f\u6301\u666f\u6c23\u3001\u504f\u9d3f\u6d3e\uff08dovish\uff1a\u504f\u5411\u964d\u606f\u6216\u5bec\u9b06\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u666f\u6c23\uff09\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u3002\u4e0a\u9031\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u5fb7\u570b ZEW \u7d93\u6fdf\u666f\u6c23\u8abf\u67e5\uff08\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u5834\u8207\u6a5f\u69cb\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f3 -5.2\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u6a5f\u69cb\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u60b2\u89c0\u60c5\u7dd2\u5347\u6eab\u3002\u9019\u4f7f\u5f97\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u7528\u6b50\u5143\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08put option\uff1a\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6216\u7528\u4f86\u907f\u96aa\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u7528\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff08interest rate futures\uff1a\u4ee5\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u6216\u5229\u7387\u76f8\u95dc\u8cc7\u7522\u70ba\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\uff1b\u53ef\u7528\u4f86\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u4f86\u964d\u606f\uff09\u4f86\u5e03\u5c40\u5e74\u5e95\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u3002\n\n\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u8981\u8a18\u5f97 2025 \u5e74\u79cb\u5b63\u5357\u6d77\u7dca\u5f35\u6642\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u66fe\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u51fa\u73fe\u53c8\u5feb\u53c8\u731b\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u3002\u7576\u6642 Euro Stoxx 50 \u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u7531\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u53cd\u63a8\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u5927\u5c0f\uff09\u5728\u4e00\u9031\u5167\u98c6\u5347 30%\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c ECB \u900f\u904e\u53e3\u982d\u5b89\u64ab\uff08verbal assurances\uff1a\u4ee5\u516c\u958b\u8ac7\u8a71\u7a69\u5b9a\u9810\u671f\uff09\u4ecb\u5165\u3002\u9019\u6bb5\u7d93\u9a57\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u5371\u6a5f\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff08options premium\uff1a\u8cb7\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u8981\u4ed8\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u7092\u5f97\u904e\u9ad8\uff1b\u7b49\u6050\u614c\u9000\u53bb\u5f8c\uff0c\u8ce3\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08volatility sellers\uff1a\u8ce3\u51fa\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u3001\u6536\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u3001\u62bc\u6ce8\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\uff09\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content 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