{"id":39619,"date":"2026-03-10T01:01:37","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T01:01:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/39619\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T01:01:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T01:01:37","slug":"mufg-%e7%9a%84-michael-wan-%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e7%9f%b3%e6%b2%b9%e9%80%9a%e8%86%a8%e8%88%87%e8%8d%b7%e5%a7%86%e8%8c%b2%e6%b5%b7%e5%b3%bd%e5%b0%81%e9%96%89%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%8d%e7%a2%ba%e5%ae%9a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/39619\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG \u7684 Michael Wan \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u77f3\u6cb9\u901a\u81a8\u8207\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u5c01\u9589\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4f7f\u83f2\u5f8b\u8cd3\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u7684\u5229\u7387\u898f\u5283\u8499\u4e0a\u9670\u5f71"},"content":{"rendered":"MUFG \u5206\u6790\u63a2\u8a0e\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u8207\u8377\u83ab\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e2d\u6771\u77f3\u6cb9\u822a\u904b\u8981\u9053\uff09\u66f4\u9577\u6642\u9593\u95dc\u9589\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u83f2\u5f8b\u8cd3\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff08Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas\uff0cBSP\uff09\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u5883\u4ecd\u662f\u5047\u8a2d 2026 \u5e74\u518d\u964d\u606f\u5169\u6b21\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u964d\u5230 3.75%\uff1b\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u6cb9\u50f9\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\uff082Q2026\uff09\u964d\u5230\u6bcf\u6876 70 \u7f8e\u5143\uff08US$70\/bbl\uff0cbbl \u6307\u300c\u6bcf\u6876\u300d\uff09\uff0c\u4e14\u5e72\u64fe\u5728 2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u524d\u7d50\u675f\u3002\n\n\u5206\u6790\u4e5f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u5883\uff1a\u82e5\u6cb9\u50f9\u9577\u671f\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u6bcf\u6876 90\u2013100 \u7f8e\u5143\uff08US$90\u2013100\/bbl\uff09\uff0c2026 \u5e74\u901a\u81a8\uff08inflation\uff0c\u7269\u50f9\u6574\u9ad4\u4e0a\u6f32\u901f\u5ea6\uff09\u6703\u5347\u5230 BSP 4% \u4e0a\u9650\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u5ef6\u7e8c\u5230 2027 \u5e74\u3002\u5728\u6bcf\u6876 90 \u7f8e\u5143\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u9810\u4f30 2026 \u5e74\u901a\u81a8\u6703\u8d85\u904e 4%\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u5728 2027 \u5e74\u964d\u5230 3.2%\u3002\n\n<h3>Oil Shock Scenarios And Inflation Path<\/h3>\n\u82e5\u6cb9\u50f9\u9ad8\u65bc\u6bcf\u6876 100 \u7f8e\u5143\uff08US$100\/bbl\uff09\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u65bc 4%\uff0c\u4e14 2027 \u5e74\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u5728 4% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u5206\u6790\u628a\u9019\u8207\u300c\u901a\u81a8\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u96e3\u4e0b\u964d\u300d\u4ee5\u53ca\u300c\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\uff08inflation expectations\uff0c\u6c11\u773e\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\u300d\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u9023\u7d50\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\n\n\u6587\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5340\u5206\u300c\u77ed\u66ab\u7684\u4f9b\u7d66\u885d\u64ca\uff08supply shock\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u7a81\u7136\u8b8a\u5c11\u5c0e\u81f4\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u300d\u8207\u300c\u66f4\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u300d\uff0c\u5f8c\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u653f\u7b56\u56de\u61c9\u3002\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u4e0d\u5047\u8a2d\u6703\u5347\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u901a\u81a8\u66f4\u96e3\u58d3\u4e0b\u4f86\u3001\u540c\u6642\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u5347\u606f\u98a8\u96aa\u6703\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\n\n\u4eca\u5e74\u518d\u964d\u606f\u5169\u6b21\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u5883\u5982\u4eca\u53d7\u5230\u56b4\u91cd\u5a01\u8105\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u65e9\u4e0a\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u539f\u6cb9\u6307\u6a19\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u4ecd\u5728\u6bcf\u6876\u7d04 95 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u83f2\u5f8b\u8cd3\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40\uff08Philippine Statistics Authority\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a 2 \u6708\u901a\u81a8\u5347\u5230 4.1%\uff0c\u8b93\u300c\u653e\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff08easing\uff0c\u964d\u606f\u6216\u504f\u5bec\u9b06\uff09\u300d\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u8fc5\u901f\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u958b\u59cb\u964d\u4f4e\u5c0d 6 \u6708\u8207 10 \u6708\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\u3002\n\n\u9019\u5df2\u4e0d\u662f\u9059\u9060\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u8377\u83ab\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u7684\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u5371\u6a5f\u6c92\u6709\u5728\u539f\u672c\u671f\u5f85\u7684 3 \u6708\u671f\u9650\u5167\u89e3\u6c7a\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u6301\u7e8c\u6027\u8868\u793a\u6cb9\u50f9\u885d\u64ca\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u50cf COVID \u6642\u671f\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e2d\u65b7\u90a3\u9ebc\u77ed\u66ab\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\u300c\u88ab\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e0b\u4f86\uff08embedded\uff0c\u8b8a\u6210\u5927\u5bb6\u7684\u5e38\u614b\u60f3\u6cd5\uff09\u300d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u61c9\u907f\u514d\u6301\u6709\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u90e8\u4f4d\u3002\n\n<h3>Trading Implications For Rates And Fx<\/h3>\n\u5728\u884d\u751f\u6027\u5546\u54c1\u5e02\u5834\uff08derivatives market\uff0c\u7528\u5408\u7d04\u4f86\u4ea4\u6613\u8207\u907f\u96aa\u7684\u5e02\u5834\uff09\uff0c\u9019\u4ee3\u8868\u8981\u89e3\u9664\u300c\u6536\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\uff08receive-fixed\uff0c\u5728\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u63db\u4e2d\u6536\u56fa\u5b9a\u3001\u4ed8\u6d6e\u52d5\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u62bc\u6ce8\u5229\u7387\u6703\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\u300d\u7684\u83f2\u5f8b\u8cd3\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u63db\uff08interest rate swaps\uff0c\u4ea4\u63db\u56fa\u5b9a\u8207\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u7387\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u90e8\u4f4d\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u964d\u606f\u6a5f\u6703\u6b63\u5728\u6d88\u9000\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u53ef\u5728\u8f03\u77ed\u5929\u671f\u4ea4\u63db\u4e0a\u300c\u4ed8\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\uff08pay fixed\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u964d\u6216\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u300d\uff0c\u5e03\u5c40 BSP \u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u5148\u524d\u9810\u671f\u66f4\u4e45\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff08on hold\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u52d5\uff09\u3002\u6a5f\u7387\u6b63\u5f9e\u300c\u964d\u606f\u5faa\u74b0\uff08rate-cutting cycle\uff0c\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u9023\u7e8c\u964d\u606f\uff09\u300d\u8f49\u5411\u300c\u9577\u6642\u9593\u66ab\u505c\uff08prolonged pause\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u4e0d\u52d5\uff09\u300d\u3002\n\n\u56de\u9867 2022 \u5e74\u901a\u81a8\u885d\u64ca\uff08inflation shock\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u7a81\u7136\u5927\u5e45\u98c6\u5347\uff09\uff0c\u83f2\u5f8b\u8cd3\u7269\u50f9\u66fe\u88ab\u63a8\u5230 8% \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0cBSP \u70ba\u4e86\u5b88\u4f4f\u4efb\u52d9\uff08mandate\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u81a8\u7b49\u6cd5\u5b9a\u76ee\u6a19\uff09\u4e26\u4e0d\u5bb3\u6015\u5927\u5e45\u5347\u606f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6703\u72a7\u7272\u6210\u9577\u3002\u9019\u6bb5\u6b77\u53f2\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c0d\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u5bb9\u5fcd\u5ea6\u6bd4\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u8d70\u5f31\u66f4\u4f4e\u3002\u82e5\u6cb9\u50f9\u9577\u671f\u9ad8\u65bc\u6bcf\u6876 100 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c2026 \u5e74\u5e95\u51fa\u73fe\u300c\u5347\u606f\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u964d\u606f\u300d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6703\u8b8a\u5f97\u5f88\u771f\u5be6\u3002\n\n\u5c0d\u5916\u532f\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08currency traders\uff09\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u6703\u6539\u8b8a\u83f2\u5f8b\u8cd3\u62ab\u7d22\uff08Philippine Peso\uff09\u7684\u524d\u666f\u3002\u8f03\u504f\u5411\u5347\u606f\u7684 BSP\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u504f\u7dca\u7e2e\u3001\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u5347\u606f\uff09\u6703\u70ba\u532f\u7387\u63d0\u4f9b\u652f\u6490\u5e95\u90e8\uff0c\u62b5\u6d88\u90e8\u5206\u56e0\u77f3\u6cb9\u9032\u53e3\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u8ca0\u9762\u60c5\u7dd2\u3002\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165 PHP \u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff1b\u8cb7\u65b9\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u53ef\u7528\u7d04\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u6a19\u7684\uff09\u6216\u8ce3\u51fa\u7f8e\u5143\/\u62ab\u7d22\uff08USD\/PHP\uff09\u50f9\u5916\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08out-of-the-money call\uff0c\u57f7\u884c\u50f9\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u524d\u532f\u7387\u3001\u8f03\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u884c\u4f7f\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e03\u5c40\u62ab\u7d22\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u9810\u671f\u66f4\u5f37\u3002\n\n\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u91cd\u9ede\u61c9\u662f\u628a\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\uff08portfolios\uff09\u5f9e\u300c\u6703\u964d\u606f\u300d\u7684\u6558\u4e8b\u4e2d\u79fb\u958b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u98a8\u96aa\u66f4\u504f\u5411 BSP \u7dad\u6301 4.25% \u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff08policy 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