Insights 
VT 
Gold’s performance has been affected by Trump’s announcement regarding a potential trade deal with the UK, which led to some positions being unwound due to positive expectations. Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining a neutral stance, Trump’s news was the primary factor influencing gold, as the market is awaiting further details on the trade agreement.
Gold remains in an uptrend, largely due to anticipated decreases in real yields amidst Federal Reserve easing. However, short-term news concerning tariffs or a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve could lead to further downside. On the daily chart, gold recently rose above the 3400 level but faced some downward pressure after Trump’s announcement, offering a potential setup for both buyers and sellers.
Analysis On Gold Movements
On the 4-hour chart, gold initially surged past key levels but fell below 3367, suggesting that sellers might wait for a pullback to position for more declines. Buyers need the price to rise above 3367 for further rallies. In the 1-hour timeframe, a minor downtrend is guiding current movements, with sellers watching for a drop towards the 3258 level and buyers looking for a breakout to push to new highs.
Upcoming catalysts include US Jobless Claims figures and further details on Trump’s trade deal with the UK.
From the perspective of recent price action, the most active forces driving movement in gold’s valuation have come from headlines rather than shifts in pure economic fundamentals. Trump’s recent remarks sparked an optimistic tone among market participants, prompting the unwinding of various defensive positions. This behavioural change was closely tied to the expectation that smoother trade discussions could reduce perceived macroeconomic risks, thereby lessening the appeal of traditional safe havens like gold.
Despite maintaining its broader upward channel, we are beginning to see a compression in momentum. This can be closely associated with the market’s sensitivity to short bursts of hawkish commentary from policymakers, particularly when real yields show signs of retracement. Powell and the broader Federal Reserve team have not veered from their middle-of-the-road stance; however, they’re closely watched for any nuanced adjustment, especially given the upcoming employment releases. These numbers have a historical tendency to surprise and, when they do, they frequently adjust market-implied rate expectations.
Technically, the correction after surpassing 3400 marked a shift in appetite. The failure to build stable buying above that level allowed short-term sellers to re-enter. Many would have awaited confirmation of further weakness once prices slid beneath 3367—a level that previously held during attempts to resume the trend upwards. On smaller timeframes, it’s evident that resistance has begun to build as each bounce is sold into more aggressively, hinting traders are anticipating more retracements in the near term.
Market Expectation And Response
From a shorter perspective, ongoing pullbacks have been relatively orderly, following the sloped levels corresponding to the 1-hour chart’s descending price structure. As such, most sellers will be patient, looking for retracements toward previous supply zones before renewing further downside exposure. The 3258 area marks the clearest near-term support level that could trigger a decisive response from buyers, should we get there.
Our focus remains on the upcoming data that could add volatility. Initial Jobless Claims, while not always a market-mover, are often used as a quick barometer of employment health. Should these come in weaker than expected while the trade agreement remains intact but unclear, gold could find temporary support. Stronger numbers, on the other hand, would likely reduce the perceived need for further easing, which would lift yields and pressure gold lower.
At this juncture, we’re tracking all signs that could alter rate expectations or shift the bias on bond yields. These rates continue to be the cornerstone for gold valuations, as they directly impact the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Any deviation in forward guidance will therefore be met with quick adjustments in positioning. This is especially true across derivative markets, where positioning tends to respond rapidly and exaggerates the underlying trend.
With that in mind, we’re staying attentive to how price responds around these levels: breaks with follow-through will matter more than single prints. Corrections that test recent lows without conviction may invite fade strategies. And if price begins building above known resistance levels following economic releases, particularly with volume, momentum-based approaches may find tactical opportunities.
