Insights 
VT 
The White House Press Secretary is conducting a briefing before the US/China meetings. In the session, it was stated that Trump will not independently reduce tariffs on China.
Trump had previously mentioned numbers like 80% and 145%, but these were not concrete figures. A baseline tariff of 10% will continue to be applied to the UK.
Overview Of Us China Trade Meeting
The meeting aims to discuss the trade relations between the US and China. However, firm decisions on tariff reductions are not expected imminently.
What this means in plain terms is that pressure is building into the talks, though not for immediate outcomes. The announcement that tariffs on China will not be withdrawn without broader agreement signals a continued hold on existing trade terms. Key figures like the 80% and 145% mentioned earlier were largely rhetorical. They reflect an approach to negotiation more than actual policy action—numbers used as leverage rather than as announcements carrying legal weight. For now, the existing 10% baseline applied elsewhere remains unchanged.
This matters for us because it injects a layer of predictability, albeit in one direction. Volatility around tariffs—specifically, abrupt shifts or headline-driven retractions—will probably not be part of the picture in the next two to three weeks. That simplifies some of the complexity we usually bake into positions that are sensitive to short-term sentiment. But it does not lower the need to stay adaptive in case sentiment shifts during the negotiation windows.
From what was said by the officials present, including the statements made by the Press Secretary, it’s apparent that delays in altering tariff structures are part of a broader holding pattern. This creates a side-channel of calm, particularly for commodities and manufacturing sectors that are typically first to move when trade recalibrations occur.
Trade Policy Implications
We should also note that while the conversation is focused on China, the inclusion of the UK within the scope of existing tariffs is meaningful. It suggests that policy coherence is being maintained in regions beyond the key bilateral meeting. For shorter-term strategies, especially those tied to cross-border manufacturing inputs and contractual price locking, expect pressure to remain concentrated on import margins.
There’s no suggestion of backchannel reductions or soft rollbacks. So the base scenario calls for maintaining positions that absorb friction from moderate trade slowdown rather than building into narratives of détente. Tools hedged to price in upward movement on the back of softened tariffs may sit idle slightly longer. Adjusting those legs or neutralising spreads where timing is exposed might help reduce whipsaw risk during early sessions immediately following any post-meeting statements.
The general stance from the session also keeps US policymaking away from reactive tariff changes. This adds an anchor to volatility expectations, especially in afternoon sessions that may previously have reacted to surprise tweets or off-cycle updates. With those impulses removed, transaction volume could tilt towards pre-scheduled data instead of unscheduled headlines.
We continue to model implied responses to three-day swing ranges rather than one-session spikes. Pay attention also to turnover levels and open interest in near-dated options tied to freight-sensitive instruments. Flatline expectations may leave these unusually thin, presenting opportunities in positioning against exaggerated moves due to low liquidity rather than news-driven re-pricing.
Careful alignment to news cycles, leaning more on calendar-based catalysts than speculation, seems the way forward for now. We’re using weighted averaging in valuation across a wider band, to avoid skewing too early toward policy changes that are yet to materialise from the meetings. Let short momentum unfold—don’t press until liquidity signals support it.
