Insights 
VT 
Former President Trump conveyed his stance on Iran using his social media platform, asserting no uranium enrichment would be tolerated. This declaration could influence oil markets.
Oil prices are experiencing a slight increase. A potential agreement with Iran could negatively impact arguments for increased oil supply. However, Trump’s opposition to uranium enrichment could hinder any immediate deals. As a result, this position may lend some support to oil prices.
Middle East Uncertainty
Trump’s latest statement on uranium enrichment, issued via social media, introduces a new layer of uncertainty in the Middle East. By firmly opposing any progress on Iran’s nuclear programme, he has potentially added friction to the already delicate discussions surrounding Iranian oil exports. Markets had begun to factor in the possibility of fresh supply entering the system, which would typically exert downward pressure on prices. However, with the prospect of talks now facing resistance, that expectation is quickly fading.
In the context of derivatives, particularly energy-linked contracts, we recognise there’s now more room for short-term volatility. Policies that impact global oil supply tend to propagate swiftly through futures pricing. Any chances of new Iranian barrels arriving on the market now appear more distant, which limits the potential for a rapid easing in prices.
Derivative markets have already begun absorbing this risk, with near-term contracts reflecting a more cautious approach. July and August contracts have slightly ticked upward, moving in tandem with diminished expectations for swift policy movement. This kind of pricing behaviour signals a sentiment shift—not dramatic, but clear enough to suggest a reassessment of prior assumptions.
Geopolitical Impact
From our perspective, traders should be attentive to geopolitical headlines, particularly those that reference nuclear negotiations or sanctions enforcement. These have a direct bearing on expectations for supply and, by extension, price direction. Timing of entry and exit points must be more finely calibrated, as headlines are now influencing intraday positions more than usual. In environments where policy influence is outsized, pacing matters.
Given how forward curves are behaving, there is currently more weight being given to front-month supply dynamics than long-term demand trends. This change in focus may hold for the short term, so any positions tied to longer-dated oil futures should take into account that pricing might remain compressed in the absence of clearer supply additions.
Lastly, the tone of rhetoric—especially from political figures with prior influence over sanctions policy—should not be discounted. These comments, while not policy on their own, often lead price movements by a few sessions. We’ve seen this happen before, and there’s little reason to expect a different outcome now. Price sensitivity to these updates means tight monitoring remains essential.
