Silver is trading at around $32.30 per troy ounce, showing a bullish trend over the last five sessions. The price remains above the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages, indicating a strong upward momentum.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 50, supporting the ongoing rise. A potential target for the silver price is the upper boundary of the ascending channel near $33.50, with a break above possibly leading to a six-month high of $34.59.
Immediate support is at the 50-day EMA around $32.21. If the price breaks below this, it could head towards the $31.50 support area, with further support at the seven-month low of $28.00.
Silver is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical instability, interest rates, USD behaviour, and industrial demand. Its price often aligns with gold, which is a similar safe-haven asset.
Silver is used in various industries like electronics and solar energy. Increased demand can raise prices, while reduced demand can lower them. The dynamics of economies like the US, China, and India also play roles in setting prices.
With silver currently holding firm just above $32, and comfortably above both its short- and medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), the technical structure remains favourable. The price action over the past week has been steady, nudging higher in a narrow range that suggests firm underlying demand. Rice’s point on the RSI hovering at 50 indicates that, while not overbought, there’s space for a further upward move without triggering too much selling pressure. At these levels, the risk-to-reward ratio for upside targets remains compelling—particularly with the market climbing within a well-defined ascending channel.
Moving forward, a rather straightforward technical map is in place. Resistance just shy of $33.50 marks the immediate barrier. A clean break there, not marginal or momentary but one confirmed by at least a couple of consecutive closes, could potentially trigger a run up towards the $34.59 area last seen nearly six months ago. Now, that level is not a ceiling, but some profit-taking would be expected around there, particularly by those who’ve ridden this leg of the rally from sub-$29 levels.
Underneath the current price structure, the 50-day EMA at about $32.21 serves as a first line of pullback support. Should that give way—which we’d interpret as more than a quick daily dip—a move into the $31.50 zone would need to be watched closely. That level aligns with a volume bulge seen on previous sessions, suggesting accumulation. Beyond that, the $28.00 zone, marked by the late-year low, remains the final line of defence, but the market would require a series of negative catalysts to revisit such a level.
Mitchell rightly pointed to the range of external factors shaping this move. From a macro perspective, the pace of rate movements in developed markets—particularly the Federal Reserve—feeds into the dollar’s strength or weakness, which in turn filters through to silver. If we observe ongoing softness in the USD, which has been stuttering as of late with mixed economic prints, it could provide tailwinds for a continued rally in metals. Conversely, a resurgence in yields or a hawkish turn could weigh quickly on these gains.
Of course, silver tends to echo gold due to their safe-haven characteristics, but it also benefits from robust industrial use. Growing demand from the solar sector—especially given the continued renewable push from Beijing and New Delhi—has gradually added a more stable floor to the market. Demand drivers from electronics and electric vehicles, noted by Alvarez, haven’t waned either. These aren’t just seasonal blips—this is infrastructure, and it lends a degree of defensiveness when compared to more speculative metals.
For those allocating risk in this particular setup, bias remains tilted to the upside as long as prices respect the ascending technical structure, with the EMAs providing reasonable stop placement. Breakouts should be approached with confirmation—intraday spikes alone have proven deceptive in recent months. Monitoring ETF flows and futures positioning can help clarify whether the current build-up has broader support, especially as we near U.S. inflation data and potential adjustments in rate expectations.
One final area that’s commanding more attention than usual is the trade balance data from China. As the world’s largest industrial consumer of silver, dips or surges in their manufacturing output should be watched in real time. The recent uptick in PMI figures suggests more room to run—but any unexpected reversals there will feed straight into silver volatility. We’ll be staying nimble.
