The current situation for Bitcoin shows a pause in its upward momentum due to the anticipation of key US economic data. Positive growth expectations offer support to Bitcoin in the broader perspective.

There is a potential risk to risk assets if there is an adjustment in interest rate expectations due to rising inflation concerns. Such adjustments might cause a short-term decline in Bitcoin and stock markets, although the overall trend should continue upwards.

Key economic events include the NFP report, the US CPI, and the FOMC decision over the coming weeks. These events will likely influence market movements, especially regarding inflation.

Bitcoin has recently broken below a trendline, moving toward the 102,127 level. This level presents a potential opportunity for buyers aiming for new all-time highs, with consolidation occurring below the 106,800 resistance.

Currently, Bitcoin is compressed between two trendlines on the 1-hour chart. Buyers are poised to push upwards, targeting new highs by breaking above the downward trendline. Conversely, sellers are focused on breaking the upward trendline, increasing their positions on potential downward moves.

What’s described above reflects a moment of pause for speculative markets. Bitcoin, after a previously extended rally, is now reacting more sensitively to upcoming macroeconomic triggers, most notably those tied to inflation and interest rate expectations in the United States. The suggestion is clear: as economic indicators become more volatile or unpredictable, so too will the reaction from markets that tend to trade on future conditions rather than present ones.

Now, to put it plainly, the broader trend—meaning the general movement over the past months—remains upward. This is supported by continuing belief in long-term economic improvement and a relatively stable liquidity environment. That being said, short-term shifts in rate expectations—especially if they lean hawkish due to stronger inflation data—do suggest a window where pressure could mount on risk assets.

A few events loom large. The monthly labour market report is expected to set the tone, shortly followed by the inflation print and the federal decision on rate policy. Each of these will drive volatility, and where that volatility leads will depend less on the actual figures and more on how they differ from market forecasts. Deviations from expectations often matter more than the values themselves.

From a technical point of view, Bitcoin has slipped through a key trendline and is testing the waters near the 102,127 region. It’s a level of clear interest, historically associated with attempts at reaccumulation. There is some buying activity evident in this range, though strength remains tentative pending further confirmation of direction. Above, resistance holds steady at 106,800, rejecting further upside attempts for now. Price has been hovering in a narrowing zone, presenting traders with a compression pattern that may not last long.

On intraday charts, the current setup is suggestive of an impending larger move. This is because compression at key levels typically leads to expansion. The bias, directionally, will depend on which line is removed first. A breakout above the descending boundary would likely bring in fresh buyers intent on testing previous highs. A fall beneath the rising trendline would encourage more aggressive sellers aiming to retest deeper supports.

For those of us watching derivatives markets, positioning must account for these upcoming catalysts with precision. Prior to data releases, leverage should lean lighter, and optionality might be more efficient than outright exposure. Timing is not only helpful, it becomes essential when price is coiled tightly and external events are scheduled to serve as ignition points.

Now is not the time to chase breaks blindly. Instead, let confirmation dictate response. Let price invite entry rather than anticipation. Patience in these phases allows for clearer trades, particularly in volatile venues like crypto derivatives. As we’ve seen repeatedly, entries too early in the compression phase often lead to stops being swept before direction fully reveals itself.

Increased volume during the breakout, either way, should be a minimum threshold before committing larger size. Market reaction around the top-tier events will serve as the directional cue. Trading ahead of them carries risk—as always—but this week in particular, emotional reaction might distort logic without a clear, measurable edge.

Volatility is returning, but not without cause. Each upcoming print tightens the coil further. And as we’ve learned, the longer the coil tightens, the more forceful the move upon release.