Insights 
VT 
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a prominent US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $61.25 during Asian trading hours. The price remains stable as traders anticipate OPEC+ decisions on May 31 regarding July oil production levels.
OPEC+ will potentially increase production by another 411,000 barrels per day, maintaining the trend for a third month. Russian Prime Minister Alexander Novak indicated that discussions on further output increases are yet to occur before the meeting.
Influence Of Us Iran Nuclear Talks
US-Iran nuclear talks also influence the oil market, with potential progress after proposals from Oman. Despite complexities, discussions could impact WTI prices, possibly limiting upward movements in the short term.
Additionally, the US delayed the 50% tariff deadline on the EU until July 9, following a conversation with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. These developments may provide some upward pressure on oil prices.
WTI oil is known for its high quality due to low gravity and sulfur content. It plays a critical role in the global oil market, often reflecting changes in supply and demand, geopolitical factors, and OPEC’s production decisions. The price of WTI is affected by the US Dollar’s value since oil trades primarily in US Dollars.
Trade Policy And Price Sensitivity
With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) holding at around $61.25 during the Asian session, the relative calm we’re seeing is likely a function of anticipation rather than disinterest. That figure, steady as it is, effectively represents a market in pause—waiting for clarity from OPEC+ as they prepare to reveal their next steps on 31 May. The group, which has recently leaned towards cautious increases in output, may opt for another monthly bump of 411,000 barrels per day. From what Novak has said publicly, though, there’s still space for discussions before that decision is final.
For those active in futures, this current moment feels suspended—pending confirmation from supply-side decision-makers. Positioning early, without committed signals from the bloc, may introduce more short-term volatility than is justifiable by reward. It doesn’t help that communication from Russian sources suggests a lack of internal consensus so far. A disciplined approach, favouring reaction over prediction, ought to serve us well.
Meanwhile, another layer of uncertainty lingers around US-Iran negotiations. There’s word out of Oman that could be interpreted as a move towards thawing icy nuclear-related discussions, but translating that into actual barrels hitting the market is far from straightforward. While the narrative might restrain runaway prices, its practical implications are murky—particularly in the type of timeframe that matters most to short-dated options or front-month contracts. For us, it means staying nimble with directional bets.
Turning briefly to trade policy, Washington’s decision to push back the EU tariff trigger date to 9 July has removed what could’ve rapidly become a shock event. From our perspective, there’s still a net pressure upward on oil, albeit minor, from the temperature drop in US-EU rhetoric. Those longer in refined product spreads might see mild tailwinds here, as the odds of friction-led demand dips have thinned.
It’s easy to overlook fundamentals in a week dominated by political chess, but with WTI, the basics still matter. The benchmark’s characteristics—low sulfur and tight density—make it desirable, and that in turn keeps it sensitive to shifts in refinery demand and transport patterns. But short-term action is increasingly pinned to perceived policy momentum rather than underlying inventories. For this stretch, speculative trimming makes more sense than doubling down.
As always, it’s worth looking at the Dollar. With most crude trades tied to USD, even minor moves can cause slippage in broader price structures. Strength in the greenback has the effect of tightening conditions for overseas buyers, which has been visible enough in the way global demand-side reactions have played out recently. Chart watchers will want to keep one eye on macro releases that could alter expectations for US interest rates, as these will channel directly into WTI valuation, especially over the near term.
We have seen this before—where expectation runs ahead of the facts. What comes next depends not only on production targets, but on how tightly market players choose to grip risk ahead of clear technical signals. Being early isn’t always the same as being right, especially when the drivers at play span geopolitics, diplomacy, and fiscal policy. Flexibility remains a more reliable asset than conviction.
