Gold prices are consolidating as renewed trade tensions attract buyers. Recently, tensions escalated when Trump accused China of violating an agreement, leading to an increase in tariffs on steel to 50%. Gold remains in an uptrend due to anticipated Fed easing, though short-term rate cut expectations could affect it. Economic data, including NFP and CPI reports, are critical for price movement.

On the daily chart, gold crossed a downward trendline, suggesting a price move into new highs, targeting 3438. Buyers may increase positions if the price reaches 3438. Sellers might expect a drop to the major upward trendline if prices hit that level.

Four Hour Chart Analysis

The 4-hour chart shows a breakout and bullish momentum. A pullback provides a favourable setup for buyers near the minor upward trendline, aiming for 3438. Sellers may wait for a price decrease to target the 3200 level.

The 1-hour chart indicates a support zone around 3330. Buyers are expected at this level, aiming for new highs if prices remain above support. Sellers will seek a break lower to continue a pullback to the minor upward trendline.

Upcoming economic indicators include US Job Openings, ADP, ISM Services PMI, Jobless Claims, and the NFP report.

The article discusses recent price activity in gold and relates it to both technical and economic factors. It notes a rise in tariffs and highlights expected central bank policy changes, such as rate cuts, which have historically supported gold prices. The charts show bullish momentum, with increasingly higher support and resistance levels, suggesting continued interest from buyers. Importantly, the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts align in indicating a move towards 3438, barring unexpected economic shocks.

Market Expectations and Data Impact

We’re seeing clear upside pressure being consolidated with regular pullbacks on lower timeframes. Increased volatility around scheduled high-impact data should be anticipated, but the broader direction points higher. While temporary retracements are likely—especially towards support zones near 3330 and down to the minor upward trendline—they still appear to present opportunities, not threats.

The larger trend remains intact following the break above the descending structure discussed earlier in the daily chart. Typically, that’s a reliable pivot where previous resistance turns into a base. Seller exhaustion has been noticeable just above that level, with momentum continuing to build each time buyers return to reclaim short-term losses.

With several high-tier US economic data releases ahead, we should prepare for immediate, sometimes extreme, fluctuations in pricing—especially within hours of announcements. These include employment data and service sector performance, both of which strongly influence rate expectations. Depending on how the numbers land relative to forecasts, market participants are likely to shift expectations around the timing and size of central bank actions. These shifts directly feed into gold pricing, primarily through yields and the dollar.

We would expect that levels around 3438 might attract initial selling pressure, but that is more likely to be met with closing of short positions rather than fresh aggressive selling. This reaction typically signals a market looking to digest gains before deciding on direction. A close above 3438 with follow-through buying would indicate substantial confidence and could open the door for the next leg up technically.

For now, levels between 3330 and the minor upward trendline near 3260 function as zones of potential accumulation. Support zones that react quickly on lower timeframes often mirror deeper liquidity: the kind that allows large participants to build positions without moving markets too far too fast. If these levels trigger buying and push gold back above recent highs, it reinforces the existing directional bias.

We have noticed that shorter-term movements align well with broader sentiment—buyers tend to step in more quickly, and pullbacks frequently remain shallow. As long as macroeconomic figures support easing and geopolitical friction persists, that approach should carry weight into the near term.

Risk remains, as always, around sharp shifts in economic numbers. For example, stronger-than-expected job growth or inflation could delay easing and alter rate expectations quickly. That would typically strengthen the currency and reduce demand for metals temporarily. Hence, watching real-time changes in bond yields post-announcement may provide early warning signs.

In summary, price currently sits well within bullish structure, supported technically on multiple timeframes. Near-term reactions to upcoming data will determine if we revisit local supports or break further to new gains.

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