Insights 
VT 
The upcoming economic week is relatively quiet, with the S&P PMI readings as the primary market influencers. There is anticipation for further ‘wait-and-see’ actions from Federal Reserve speakers.
Trade deals from the US and the House Republicans’ attempts to pass Trump’s budget are awaited. The following Monday is a holiday, suggesting a quiet Friday afternoon. Key events begin on Monday, May 19, with several Federal Reserve speakers scheduled throughout the day.
Key Events Early In The Week
On Tuesday, May 20, the Philadelphia Fed’s non-manufacturing index will be published, and additional Fed talks are lined up. Wednesday, May 21, features a $16 billion 20-year US Treasury auction, with several Fed members providing statements.
Thursday, May 22, is a data-focused day with initial jobless claims expected at 226,000, compared to a previous 229,000. The Chicago Fed national activity index and S&P flash PMIs are also on schedule. Existing-home sales for April are anticipated to increase month-over-month by 3.2%.
Friday, May 23, includes the announcement of new-home sales figures. The seasonally adjusted annual rate is forecasted at 705,000, reflecting a monthly increase of 2.6% following a 4.0% decrease.
Market Trends And Influences
What we’ve seen so far is a market treading lightly. With the data calendar largely subdued and public holidays reducing trading days, focus naturally drifts toward qualitative signals rather than numbers on a screen. The next few sessions are weighted by Federal Reserve communication, which, though expected to be consistent, may still draw attention due to the absence of louder headlines. Whatever is said, it will be parsed carefully for shifting tones.
The political theatre adds another layer—but it’s not the headline act this time. With discussions still swirling around budget policy and trade dynamics, we’re looking at longer-term effects rather than anything that affects flows in the near term. For now, little is expected to spill into pricing unless language becomes particularly pointed.
Monday marks the real beginning of the week for us, given the holiday lull just ahead. Statements from central bank figures could make the day less predictable than usual. One might not expect strong positioning into the weekend, especially as liquidity likely thins, yet the timing works in favour of small positioning adjustments rather than enforced rotations.
Tuesday’s Philly Fed non-manufacturing index lands in what’s likely to be a tepid stretch for macro indicators. Its importance mostly lies in the tone it sets for local business activity, not its change from prior levels. This particular index tends not to lead broader sentiment on its own but, in quieter weeks, context enhances its weight.
Midweek auctions, like the 20-year issuance on Wednesday, often influence long-end rates more than they stir equity or credit markets. That being said, yields settling in a particular range after supply can reinforce risk appetite or caution, depending on the market’s bias. We’re watching closely how speeches on the same day reflect cohesion within the Fed ranks—especially on inflation trajectory and labour market resilience. Divergence in views could matter more than usual.
Thursday is densely packed. The jobless figure is less about the number itself than about whether it continues an upward nudge. A steady hold or dip from 229,000 would ease nerves. If it edges closer to 240,000 in coming weeks, it could start conversations about economic frailty. That’s not the path we’re on yet. The flash PMIs, though often just noise, gain attention against such a light backdrop—the composite reading will need to suggest either clear expansion or contraction to break the market’s current balance.
The housing figures—existing-home sales and new-home sales—carry more weight than usual given their capacity to reflect consumer posture and financial conditions. An uptick of 3.2% would reinforce the idea that rate-sensitive pockets of the economy are adjusting, not collapsing. Still, the previous month’s sharp drop in new sales means this rebound will be viewed as partial and likely driven by incentives or pent-up activity rather than sustainable demand recovery.
Given the spacing of events and the predictable flow of speech content, pricing probably holds to recent ranges, with reaction speeds depending mostly on surprise, not the mere occurrence of data or commentary. As volatility remains concentrated at specific times, traders will want to keep hedging nimble and scaled, avoiding overexposure into known statements or numbers due to the low probability of directional follow-through. Reduce risk into midday sessions, and avoid forcing a narrative into flat sessions. That’s the better play in the coming stretch.
