Insights 
VT 
The USD is stronger against the three major currency pairs at the start of the US session. The US and China are set to meet in Switzerland to discuss trade, indicating a potential easing of tensions. However, the negotiation process is predicted to be lengthy.
The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting today with no expected change in interest rates. Attention will be on Fed Chair Powell’s remarks and the FOMC statement. For June, there is a 30% chance anticipated for a rate cut of 25 basis points.
Us Stocks Gaining
US stocks are showing gains after two days of declines. The Dow Industrial Average increases by 264 points, the S&P rises by 32 points, and the Nasdaq gains 115 points.
In the US debt market, yields are slightly higher with the 2-year yield at 3.815%, the 5-year at 3.920%, the 10-year at 4.323%, and the 30-year at 4.801%.
In other markets, crude oil is up by $0.60 or 1.03%. Gold decreases by $48 or 1.42%, and silver is down by $0.26 or 0.83%. Bitcoin experiences an increase of $173, bringing it to $96,987.
What we’ve just seen is a firm start for the dollar this session, gaining ground against the most traded currency pairs. Strength here generally reflects either a shift in risk appetite or expectations around interest rate policy. In this case, both are playing a part.
Talks between Washington and Beijing are scheduled in Switzerland, offering a glimmer of optimism around ongoing trade friction. However, the process will almost certainly take time, and there is little in the way of short-term resolutions expected. Even if dialogue is open, it’s reasonable to view progress as a slow drip. For positioning around commodity-linked or export-sensitive currencies, it would be prudent to avoid assuming swift outcomes. We’re choosing to stay reactive, not predictive, in this particular area.
The Fed And Interest Rates
The Fed is not expected to touch rates during the meeting today—no surprises here. What keeps us watching, though, are Powell’s remarks and the language of the accompanying statement. With a 30% probability being priced in for a June cut, the tone today could directly impact short-end rates and implied volatility. The more dovish the language, the more re-pricing we could see in forward contracts. A surprising change in emphasis could catch short positions off guard.
Equities are on the rebound after two sessions in the red. The fact that major indices are pushing higher indicates that investors remain tentatively optimistic, possibly banking on softer central bank language or seeing recent moves as oversold. For us, it’s precautionary rather than euphoric—stock movements like these often lack conviction unless underpinned by strong data or a clear catalyst.
Yield curves are flattening a touch, though all tenors are posting mild increases. Two-year notes sit just under 3.82%, while the 30-year Treasury is holding close to 4.80%. These changes are small but could prove relevant for rate-sensitive spreads. Anyone placing trades based on near-term monetary expectations should notice how carefully rates are creeping up without triggering moves in risk assets. There’s a degree of disconnect here that’s worth watching.
Commodities are a mixed bag. Oil is nudging upwards, but with such a modest move, it hardly demands a rotation. Instead, it reflects broader volatility in demand assumptions. Gold has come off sharply—$48 lower represents a clear retreat from recent strength, and suggests some unwinding of hedge flows linked to geopolitics or inflation. Silver, as it often does, is merely echoing this. In the short-term, precious metals appear open to further downside if real yields climb or if Fed commentary surprises toward the hawkish side.
Bitcoin is extending gains, now trading above $96,000. This could simply be a spillover of broader risk on sentiment, but more likely it’s a function of market participants reaching for yield—or at least perceived momentum—in a week lacking heavyweight data. Either way, it’s not the move itself, but the context behind it that helps steer positioning. We’re watching how other correlated risk assets respond for early confirmation.
Right now, we’re standing in the middle of several moving parts—but each is giving enough clarity to steer directional bias. The key is to avoid overstaying trades tied to in-between sentiment shifts, particularly where volatility remains calculated but reactive.
