Insights 
VT 
The USD/CAD pair may find support near the 1.3800 level as the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers above 30, indicating bearish momentum. Currently trading around 1.3820, the pair shows a descending channel pattern on the daily chart, maintaining a bearish sentiment.
The USD/CAD is below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average, suggesting weak short-term momentum, though more price movement is needed to confirm a trend. If the pair breaks below the 1.3800 support, it could retest the seven-month low of 1.3760, close to the lower boundary of the channel.
Potential Support And Resistance Levels
A breach of the descending channel could push the USD/CAD towards the 1.3419 level, with more support near the channel’s lower boundary at 1.3320. On the upside, initial resistance lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3837, with a breakout leading towards the 50-day EMA at 1.4058 and potential gains towards 1.4415.
The Canadian Dollar showed the strongest performance against the Australian Dollar compared to other major currencies. Against the USD, CAD increased by 0.02%, while against the AUD, it rose by 0.32%. Such data highlights fluctuating currency strengths.
Given the current technical setup and price behaviour, we’re seeing a pointed slowdown in bullish energy. The USD/CAD remains under pressure within a narrowing structure — a descending channel that continues to guide the directional bias. We’ve got RSI readings floating just above the oversold range, which tends to ease any panic but still reflects heavier selling interest than buying enthusiasm. We’re not in oversold territory yet, but we’re dangerously close.
Current Market Sentiment
Price action dancing just around 1.3820 suggests that any dip lower might open the gates to that 1.3800 level — a threshold we should pay close attention to. That level isn’t just a number; it’s technically loaded. It’s acted as a springboard before. If enough weight is thrown at it and it gives way, there’s little standing in the way of a retest of 1.3760. That level lines up with the lower end of the channel and would be critical in measuring how far this bearish structure still has to run.
Now, looking lower than 1.3760, if price doesn’t stabilise there, we’d likely be forced to re-evaluate the broader structural integrity of the move since January. The next stops, as we’ve mapped out in earlier weeks, would be closer to 1.3419 and possibly stretching to 1.3320 — both being historically relevant and recently active zones that have caught directional swings before.
On the resistance side, unless there’s a decisive break higher through the 9-day EMA at 1.3837, upside attempts are likely to fizzle out rather than flourish. That main dynamic resistance has curbed rallies repeatedly, and tonight’s reluctance to clear it tells us something’s still weighing. If it *does* get cleared with conviction, then the 50-day EMA becomes the next logical magnet, sitting at 1.4058. Beyond that, if bears lose further pace, longer-term sentiment will hinge on whether bulls can even dream of revisiting the 1.4415 region — last seen when USD strength dominated broadly.
Outside of charts and candles, we’ve also tracked relative currency moves — CAD has outpaced AUD more clearly than USD this week, gaining 0.32% versus a mere 0.02% against the greenback. That kind of performance matters in short-term spreads and correlation plays, especially when one currency shows strength across multiple pairings. From our side, we continue to compare cross performance in majors to layer that against the broader directional argument.
This isn’t a moment to jump the gun. Until the pair either finds firmer ground at a lower support or breaks out of this channel with real follow-through, tactical range-bound strategy remains the default. We prefer tight positioning, watching RSI, support-resistance pivots, and how price behaves near those EMAs. A busy few sessions ahead — no time for guesswork.
