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Swiss Franc Underperformance
The Swiss Franc is underperforming due to reduced safe-haven demand and is facing challenges from a strong currency affecting exports. The EUR/CHF stands near 0.9384, pointing towards this unfavourable trend.
Technically, USD/CHF shows a bullish trend at around 0.9000, with the 20-day SMA as immediate support. Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD suggest upward momentum, though the ADX indicates that the trend lacks strong intensity.
With USD/CHF pushing above the 0.9000 level, the price action reflects continued strength in the greenback, bolstered by growing consensus around the short-term positive impact of the tariff rollbacks. The bond market has responded in kind, propelling the 10-year yield to 4.45%, a move that reinforces underlying risk appetite and reaffirms expectations of tighter financial conditions being priced out slightly. There’s plenty to unpack from that.
Where this gets interesting is not just the numbers, but the rate at which dollar-supportive themes are re-entering the discussion. The Fed’s wait-and-see stance on trade and inflation has not dampened market confidence, as seen in how aggressively the Dollar Index has moved back towards 101.90. This rebound—more than 1% higher—reflects not only optimism around external developments but also internal resilience. It’s increasingly difficult to argue against the current US growth trajectory when the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow confirms a 2.30% estimate for Q2. Given this, it’s not surprising that momentum continues to favour longer USD positions, at least against weaker or less reactive currencies.
Technical Analysis of USD to CHF
As for the Franc, it’s noticeably lagging in this cycle. Reduced safe-haven flows are obviously a part of that story, but what’s less visible—and perhaps more impactful for the medium term—is how strength in the domestic currency remains a headwind for exporters. It’s not just about capital flows any more; it’s about competitiveness dragging in real terms. The EUR/CHF hovering near 0.9384 only underscores that pressure, particularly if the European data stabilises faster than expected.
From a technical view, USD/CHF has broken above short-term resistance levels and is testing territory that had previously acted as a ceiling. The 20-day SMA now sits beneath price action, turning into potential dynamic support. Momentum remains tilted upwards on major indicators, including RSI and MACD, both of which are holding above their midlines and pushing higher. That said, the ADX, still under the 20 level, suggests that while direction exists, conviction in the move has yet to solidify.
What we’re watching now is whether the pair can meaningfully clear 0.9050 and hold there on closing basis. This would point towards sustained bullish momentum. Timing entries near 0.9000 could offer better risk-reward provided stops are reasonably tight—the area between 0.8910 and 0.8880 remains prevous demand and could function again in case of retracement. Avoid getting too aggressive unless we see further confirmation above 0.9080 and ideally 0.9110—zones where offers likely cluster.
It makes sense to view this move with a tactical lens. Price is moving upward, but not impulsively. Momentum signals are there, but the trend strength hasn’t caught up. We don’t need to chase. If price consolidates near resistance and volume tapers off, it’s a sign of short-term exhaustion. Conversely, a clean break on volume provides conviction.
In tracking risk-reward over the coming sessions, dips toward the 0.8950–0.8910 region could present re-entry opportunities, assuming broader Dollar sentiment holds. Be disciplined with stops, especially around the 0.8850 point, where failed recoveries in the past have led to sharper pullbacks.
We’ll be monitoring how macro data shifts consensus—especially incoming US job and inflation numbers, which could prompt subtle shifts in short-end rate expectations. Those would feed directly into currency pricing via yield differentials. Let’s not forget: even with a softer ADX reading, directional moves can still offer room if the fundamental narrative aligns. The key is not to force a position when momentum lacks teeth; instead, wait for the market to show its hand.
