Insights 
VT 
Italy’s trade balance with the European Union shifted from a deficit of €0.361 billion to a larger deficit of €2.453 billion in March. This change reflects a notable increase in the trade gap within one month.
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair dropped below 1.1200, reacting to a stronger US Dollar. Attention is now on upcoming US sentiment data and speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers.
Other Currency Movements
In other currency movements, GBP/USD fell below 1.3300, with the Dollar gaining strength due to optimism about US trade deals. Market participants are on alert for upcoming data releases.
Gold prices dipped, hovering near $3,200 amidst ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties. The lack of progress in Ukraine-Russia talks continues to influence the market.
Bitcoin’s price is approaching a key resistance level of $105,000, with potential implications for market direction. Ethereum and Ripple maintain key support zones, which could determine future price movements.
President Trump’s Middle East trip resulted in numerous significant deals, aiming to bolster US trade and reinforce its position in technology and defence exports. This visit could impact market dynamics in the sectors involved.
Italy’s widened trade shortfall with the bloc—from just over €360 million to €2.45 billion—suggests a rapid shift in the flow of goods and services. The immediate takeaway here is the acceleration of import pressures without a proportionate increase in exports. While not a surprise given seasonal adjustments and fluctuating demand across core EU economies, such a move narrows the room for flexible positioning in euro-denominated exposures.
Monitoring The Market
We’re watching EUR/USD closely as it slides below 1.1200. The speed with which it gave up that level hints at rising confidence in the US Dollar. Monetary policy expectations, particularly in light of upcoming sentiment measures and public remarks from the Federal Reserve, offer likely catalysts. With Powell set to speak later this week and inflation data hovering stubbornly above target, traders should account for the increased odds of a more hawkish tone than previously priced in.
Sterling has also stumbled. GBP/USD falling under 1.3300 was partly driven by renewed optimism around Washington’s trade strategy. Bidirectional risks remain, but the Dollar’s strength appears more rooted in tangible policy wins and not just rhetoric. When the Greenback gains broad-based traction, pairs often don’t bounce back quickly.
Gold, despite big headlines and impulse moves, hasn’t run away. Trading just under $3,200, it’s still catching flows from risk-averse buyers, though momentum has slowed. The stall in Ukraine-Russia diplomacy continues to weigh on sentiment. Any credible shift on that front—either escalation or compromise—could shift safe-haven flows rapidly. At these levels, gold feels boxed in.
In digital assets, Bitcoin inches toward $105,000. It’s a level filled with speculative memory. Break above, and we likely hit a new phase of flows driven by FOMO and leverage re-allocations. Hold below, and it may invite some short-term exhaustion, especially with volatility normalising. Ethereum and Ripple haven’t broken trendlines yet—they’re tracking firm support ranges, acting as bellwethers for broader alt behaviours under macro pressure.
The Middle East visit by Trump brought defence and tech deals that, while not unusual, shift the tone of bilateral trade in those verticals. For us, what stands out isn’t the size of the agreements but the concentration in sensitive and innovation-heavy industries. That’s where price reactions tend to linger longer. There may be cross-asset spillover—watch defence equities and currency trades involving Gulf nations, especially with renewed interest in aligning non-oil sectors.
Where we sit now, the coming week offers layers of converging pressure points. Setups in FX, metals, and crypto are tilting from range-bound into more directional territory. Decisions made here have potential follow-through—less noise, more signal. That’s what needs to be watched. Risk isn’t evenly distributed.
