The NASDAQ100 index has seen a remarkable increase, rising by over 25% since predictions made in early April. The index reached $21,483 last week, dipped to $20,778, and currently trades at $21,378, aligning with earlier projections. Accurate chart analysis using the Elliott Wave method has proven effective in tracking the market progress.

Market Predictions

The current phase, denoted as orange W-5, awaits further development. Expectation points towards the index reaching $22,000 before a potential decrease to $21,000 and a subsequent rise to between $22,400 and $22,900. The forecast depends on prices maintaining levels above $20,778 and particularly above $20,613.

Beyond this analysis, NZD/USD is maintaining its move towards 0.6000 after a rate cut by the RBNZ, while USD/JPY has retreated to 144.00 due to recent Japanese commentary. Gold is seizing momentum towards $3,300 due to geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin suggests a rally owing to significant institutional buying, marking inflows of $2.9 billion into ETFs.

Trading foreign exchange involves high risk, with the potential of losing the entire investment. A clear understanding of risks and careful planning is essential prior to engaging in forex trading.

The NASDAQ100’s climb since April has been nothing short of exceptional, pushing above the 25% mark and briefly topping at $21,483 last week, before retracing to $20,778 and rebounding to $21,378. These swings have adhered closely to earlier technical assessments, particularly those derived from Elliott Wave theory, which continues to support our road map. Currently, we’re observing the market move within the fifth orange wave, a late-stage impulse suggesting waning momentum, yet not devoid of further upside.

The scenario we’re tracking points towards a push beyond the $22,000 threshold. That level serves as a psychological and technical target before sellers potentially reassert themselves, bringing prices down to $21,000—possibly a rebalancing move. From there, momentum may resume on the upside, carving out a path towards the $22,400–$22,900 zone. Holding above $20,778 remains key for this outlook. Should the lower limit of $20,613 be breached, the bullish setup risks invalidation, with a shift in short-term structure likely.

Global Market Trends

Given this, derivative positions linked to the NASDAQ100 should be approached with precision in the coming sessions. Risk-defined strategies that favour upside continuity—with pre-defined exits just beneath key support thresholds—can make the most of current market structures while avoiding over-exposure if the fifth wave underperforms.

Elsewhere, price movement in NZD/USD reflects softness after New Zealand’s latest monetary policy cut. The journey towards 0.6000 isn’t smooth, but aligns with how interest rate differentials reprice in the FX space. This is a directional cue for carry-trade setups with limited downside stretch if further dovishness is priced in.

USD/JPY’s downturn to 144.00, spurred by commentary out of Japan, indicates accelerated sensitivity to verbal intervention. It’s clear from the recent retreat that traders are now pricing in a tighter reaction function from Tokyo. Structured trades that lean short on rallies could take advantage, especially if further signals from Japanese officials emerge.

Gold, meanwhile, is not drifting—it is moving with purpose. Current demand is fuelled by heightened geopolitical risks, pushing prices steadily towards $3,300. There is conviction here, both technically and via the fundamentals feeding strong safe-haven flows. For commodity-linked instruments or leveraged synthetic products, staying aligned with this bullish push seems prudent—especially on pullbacks holding above previous breakout zones.

Then there’s Bitcoin. The $2.9 billion inflow into ETFs is not noise; it points to commitment from large participants who’ve traditionally sat on the sidelines. This capital shift deserves attention—not for hype, but for structural positioning. If the flows continue, levels that seem stretched now could be redefined upward. Synthetic long positions with limited downside exposure could serve well if inflows maintain pace.

As always, it bears repeating: leverage in foreign exchange and derivative markets is a double-edged sword. Labels like “support” or “confirmation” mean little without clear control over position sizing and exit logic. We would always prioritise a strategy that mitigates risk ahead of any market accolade.

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