Insights 
VT 
The United States ISM Services New Orders Index increased from 50.4 to 52.3 in April. This reflects a rise in demand within the service sector.
The AUD/USD pair moved closer to the 0.6500 level amid ongoing selling pressure on the US Dollar. The Euro to US Dollar rate showed resilience, briefly trading below the 1.1300 level due to a weakened Dollar.
Gold Markets Reaction
Gold prices rose above $3,300 per troy ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions. Uncertainty over US trade policy is contributing to an increase in gold demand.
Cryptocurrencies saw a decline with Bitcoin falling below $94,000 and overall market capitalization dropping 3% to $3.1 trillion due to over $100 billion in outflows. SUI bucked the trend, showing gains possibly linked to political commentary.
There is uncertainty surrounding international tariff policies, though peak levels might have been reached. Continued policy unpredictability poses an ongoing risk.
Trading Guidance for EUR/USD
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The rise in the ISM Services New Orders Index—from 50.4 to 52.3 in April—clearly indicates an expansion in service sector activity in the United States. We read this as a renewed interest in consumption-led growth and potentially firmer business expectations for the near term. For those of us trading derivatives connected to macroeconomic events, this uptick stands out as a data point that could influence USD movement in the short term, particularly through interest rate expectations. One can’t ignore the possibility that a stronger services sector may embolden the Federal Reserve to delay or moderate future rate cuts.
This dovetails with continued pressure on the US Dollar. Bearish sentiment on the greenback has nudged AUD/USD towards the 0.6500 mark. The weakness isn’t isolated and is feeding through to other major currency pairs, evidenced by the EUR/USD showing tenacity even as it briefly dipped under 1.1300. Traders monitoring these crosses are seeing the Dollar lose traction, without a direct shock but rather through a series of soft signals accumulating across sectors.
Meanwhile, gold’s breakout above $3,300 per ounce serves as an additional reaction to broader volatility. The rush into gold isn’t simply a consequence of monetary policy uncertainty—though that’s part of it—it seems increasingly amplified by external stressors, particularly on the geopolitical front. The tone on trade rhetoric coming out of the US continues to lean towards unpredictability, which in past cycles has consistently driven metal markets higher. For us, that’s a reminder: watch gold not only as a hedge, but also as a potential early warning.
In crypto, we’re seeing the opposite behaviour. A sharp dip in Bitcoin, now trading under $94,000, reflects strained sentiment. This downturn cut about $100 billion from the digital asset space, dragging down overall valuation by 3%. One coin, SUI, moved in the other direction, possibly responding to political headlines or investor anticipation around upcoming regulatory speeches. It’s a reminder that while the sector often trades in broad risk cycles, isolated tokens may still behave differently based on their ecosystem or external catalysts.
With tariff policy on the global stage, there’s little in the way of clarity right now. The lack of coordination and the noise around peak rate thresholds make it difficult to build scenarios with accuracy. For options and futures traders, this elevates the role of implied volatility and makes macro hedges more attractive. We’re focused heavily on pricing that reflects policy inertia rather than abrupt reversals, assuming that while tariffs may not escalate, neither will stability return quickly.
As for EUR/USD, while long-term tools are lining up to support next year’s structure, the environment remains sensitive. Positioning needs to account not only for spread variations and execution speed but also for how these platforms route orders during hours of lower liquidity. Execution is everything. Mistimes and inefficiencies in rollover periods have already cost trades this quarter. That’s why infrastructure review is just as relevant as chart analysis.
We remain alert to shifts in momentum, particularly when price action detaches from underlying fundamentals. As volatility clusters remain small but frequent, we find shorter-term expiry derivative instruments more effective than longer-term contracts, at least until clearer pricing signals emerge.
