EUR/USD moves towards 1.1370 during Friday’s early European session. This movement is bolstered by the hope for a trade agreement between the US and the EU. Trading activity may be subdued due to Good Friday.
Technically, the pair maintains a positive trajectory as it stays above the crucial 100-day EMA. The RSI indicator supports this bullish momentum by remaining above its midline.
Resistance and Support Levels
The pair’s first resistance target is between 1.1400-1.1415, which includes the psychological threshold and April 16th’s high. Potential gains could see a rise to 1.1495, with another resistance level at 1.1546.
On the downside, 1.1280 serves as initial support, marked by the low of April 16. Further decline might target 1.1100, with a sustained drop possibly leading to 1.0888.
The Euro, the currency of 19 European Union countries, accounted for 31% of forex transactions in 2022. The ECB manages Eurozone monetary policy, and interest rate changes impact the Euro’s value.
Inflation and economic health data affect the Euro. A robust economic outlook tends to strengthen the currency, drawing foreign investment and prompting potential ECB rate hikes. A positive trade balance also enhances the Euro’s value.
Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis
With EUR/USD edging towards the 1.1370 mark during the quieter hours of early Friday European trading, it’s worth asking what exactly is fuelling the gradual climb. Confidence surrounding a potential trade breakthrough between the US and EU appears to support the current lift in sentiment. That said, upcoming holiday-related market closures, particularly around Good Friday, likely explain the thinner volumes and slightly narrower day-range movement.
From a technical angle, our view remains that the pair is inside an upward pattern. The fact that price is holding above the 100-day exponential moving average, which typically smooths out short to medium-term price fluctuations, underpins that bullish structure. There’s been no exhaustion yet from the Relative Strength Index either—it continues to hover a good way above the central 50 point, providing a level of confirmation that upward momentum hasn’t yet run its course.
We’re watching the first zone around 1.1400 to 1.1415. Not just a round number, but also the point where it topped out earlier this month. If buyers push past that region, the focus shifts higher toward 1.1495, where prior congestion occurred, and potentially a stretch to 1.1546, which would take us to levels not seen since summer last year.
Should the pair reverse, 1.1280 comes into play as the most immediate line of support. It corresponds with a prior dip from earlier this week and acts as the first area where buyers may attempt to re-enter. If that doesn’t hold, there’s little stopping price slipping back to 1.1100, and from there, an even sharper slide could take it to the 1.0888 zone, which is on the radar due to multiple touches from late February.
From a macroeconomic stance, we continue to monitor shifts in the Euro’s direction through both central bank communication and economic data. The European Central Bank still manages its policy based on evolving factors such as inflation, GDP performance, and broader financial conditions. Tighter monetary policy—such as quicker-than-anticipated rate rises—will likely offer more support to the currency. But that presumes inflation stays sticky and economic activity doesn’t weaken sharply from here.
The Euro still makes up nearly a third of global foreign exchange transactions. That level of participation also makes it sensitive to broader risk sentiment and trade flows. If European exports remain strong or the bloc records a sizeable current account surplus, we would expect current upward pressures on the Euro to remain intact. That, in turn, reshapes expectations for volatility and directional positioning in options markets.
Over the coming sessions, traders should consider risk-to-reward asymmetries tied to the upcoming resistance areas and weigh participation accordingly. With markets skimming these inflection points and data releases light due to public holidays, sharp swings may be limited—but any surprise headline relating to interest rates or trade deals could break that quiet. In any scenario, current levels are worth watching with stops placed well beyond volatile ranges to avoid being squeezed out on low liquidity moves. Keep an ear to the ground for remarks from Lagarde or any ECB policymaker. That might be where the next actionable move comes from.
