The EUR/CHF pair displays a cautious attitude, fluctuating near the 0.94 level with slight increases

    by VT Markets
    /
    May 17, 2025

    The EUR/CHF pair lingered around the 0.94 mark on Friday with minor gains, maintaining a bearish trend. Key support exists below 0.9350, with nearby resistance at 0.9360. Despite modest recovery, the overall technical perspective indicates downward pressure due to ongoing selling forces, confining the pair to a narrow range.

    The alignment of the 20, 100, and 200-day SMAs indicates downward pressure, confirming the broader selling trend. The RSI hovers in the 40s, suggesting neutral market conditions, while the MACD indicates a slight buying momentum, contrasting with the bearish sentiment.

    The Momentum (10) indicator remains around 0, hinting at mild buying interest. Both the Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) and Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) sit in the 50s, indicating a largely neutral stance. Traders face indecision as they consider potential rebounds against the prevailing downtrend.

    Immediate support is anticipated around 0.9353, followed by 0.9341 and 0.9334. Resistance may arise around 0.9362, followed by 0.9363 and 0.9364, limiting short-term recovery efforts.

    Although the pair edged slightly upwards around the 0.94 handle last Friday, the general chart behaviour has not deviated much from its longer-term direction. Price action remains rather boxed in, reflecting a lack of conviction on either side. While a bounce was observed, the move lacks any real depth, consistent with what we’ve been seeing from broader technical tools.

    With the short and medium-term SMAs stacked above price, and the 200-day average continuing its descent, the overall downtrend remains undisturbed. This alignment reinforces the sense that upward corrections are struggling to hold. What this set-up typically implies is that when buyers do step in, their efforts are quickly countered by more persistent selling just overhead.

    The RSI, balancing around the mid-40s, reflects this indecision—enough support to prevent a sharp drop, but far from suggesting an upswing with any substance. Meanwhile, the MACD displays a subdued attempt by bulls to regain some traction. Though it has slightly ticked upwards, there’s no solid divergence to latch onto.

    Momentum indicators such as the 10-period reading barely register a directional push. We’re observing values hovering around neutral zones, without a decisive break in intensity. Similarly, the Ultimate Oscillator and the Stochastic %K continue to trade in the middle range, confirming the absence of a strong directional hand. This consolidation reflects a market waiting for clearer cues or shocks—neither side appears eager to commit fully.

    That being said, levels drawn directly from recent price movements suggest where interest is likely to stir. The 0.9353 level remains initial support, though weaker buyers gave way easily earlier last week. Below that come 0.9341 and 0.9334, where fresh order flow emerged during previous attempts lower. On the way up, the series of resistances between 0.9362 and 0.9364 have become a bit compressed, but still present meaningful zones where supply has typically stepped in.

    If we’re watching options or taking short-duration positions linked to this pair, that clustering of resistance above suggests upside attempts may be short-lived without broader backing. Rolling short-strike positions higher could be considered, provided there’s confirmation through momentum data. Conversely, any decisive break below 0.9330, particularly if volume accompanies it, might clear the path for sellers to challenge more extended levels.

    The data currently tells us that, without a new catalyst or reversal signal, the pair remains vulnerable to renewed selling below the 0.9350 area. Positioning here has to be responsive. We want to lean with price, but be prepared for failed moves in either direction. Narrow trading bands rarely last forever, but until they break, premiums must be handled with care.

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