Insights 
VT 
Currency Performance Analysis
EUR/JPY is experiencing a decline, currently trading around 162.80, within a broader ascending channel. Key technical indicators show the pair facing resistance near the nine-day EMA at 163.41, while the 14-day RSI has dropped below 50, suggesting a bearish bias.
Support for EUR/JPY is near the channel’s lower boundary around 162.50, with additional backing at the 50-day EMA at 162.23. A fall below these levels could drive the currency pair toward a two-month low of 155.59, recorded in early March, and possibly further to 154.41.
Resistance could be met at the nine-day EMA of 163.42, with potential targets at the six-month high of 165.21 and a nine-month high of 166.69 if breached. In the currency landscape, the Euro registers as weakest against the New Zealand Dollar, while performing moderately against other major currencies.
The heat map detailing the Euro’s performance shows percentage changes against major currencies, demonstrating its relative strength or weakness. These currency movements are informational, and thorough research is advised when considering any market actions. All market activities come with risks, emphasising the importance of informed decision-making.
This recent pullback in EUR/JPY has brought it back into the lower half of its upward-sloping channel, around the 162.80 mark. We’re seeing hesitation just above the 162.50 level, an area that’s been providing a bit of structure since late April. Price action here remains very much reactive, staying within the confines of the longer-term uptrend, despite signs of short-term weakness.
Support and Resistance Levels
Technical momentum, at least at the surface, has thinned. The nine-day EMA near 163.41 is acting as short-term resistance, but it’s notable that we haven’t seen any convincing closes above it in recent sessions. When the 14-day RSI dips under the midpoint—like it just has—it often coincides with more downside probing. But price alone carries more weight; indicators tend to follow, not lead.
Around 162.23, the 50-day EMA is styled as the next real litmus test. While it’s not been challenged meaningfully since March, if that threshold fails to hold, the floor may give way rather quickly. Support fades further down, with the March low of 155.59 not that distant in percentage terms from current levels, and a further drop to 154.41, last visited in early February, starts to come into focus. We’re watching this slope closely.
On the upside, the immediate barrier is right around the same nine-day average. That makes 163.42 worth tracking. A close above that level does little on its own—it’s what follows after that matters—but it might hint at short-term stabilisation. Further up the chain, the six-month top at 165.21 and the nine-month peak of 166.69 are only viable if the pair shifts back into firm buying territory. That doesn’t seem likely without a drive from external factors and broader Euro strength.
Cross-pair momentum confirms the soft patch we’ve been seeing in the Euro. It’s been underperforming against higher-yielding peers like the New Zealand Dollar and remains flat or mildly better against most of the others. This relative standing does more than hint at where speculative flows have moved recently. The heat map provides this in raw visual form, showing how the currency behaves dynamically rather than in isolation.
From here, the path for short-dated derivative strategies probably hinges on whether the channel floor holds or gives way under pressure. We favour letting the current test at 162.50 play out before adjusting positioning. If there’s a flush toward 162.00, that’s a level we’d expect to see attempted base-building unless sentiment shifts sharply.
Timing will depend less on what indicators say and more on how traders behave around these levels. With volatility compressed and options skews leaning slightly to the downside, this week could see smaller movements punctuated by short bursts rather than trending days. So, clarity may not come all at once. What we can do is stay responsive, with positioning light enough to pivot either way and exposure scaled properly around event risks or data that might stir markets.
