Insights 
VT 
AUDUSD is encountering resistance near key moving averages after recovering from support levels. Traders are monitoring for a breakout above these resistance levels to enhance bullish momentum.
This week, AUDUSD surpassed a significant swing area and a consolidation range limit, reaching 0.65135. The movement included an advance above the 200-day moving average at 0.64587, indicating strong buying interest.
Fed Rate Decision Impact
However, momentum weakened post-Fed rate decision, with the pair dropping below the 200-day MA. A rise met resistance at the same level on Thursday as sellers prevented further gains.
During today’s Asian session, buyers intervened at a rising trendline support. This lifted AUDUSD above the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, yet gains were restrained near the 200-hour MA at 0.64291.
Going forward, AUDUSD faces resistance near:
– 200-hour MA: 0.64291
– 100-hour MA: 0.64459
– 200-day MA: 0.64588
– Swing area: 0.6429–0.6442
Despite recent declines, the pair remains near its yearly highs. Staying above the trendline and 4-hour 100-bar MA is positive, but buyers need to consistently rise above the 200-day MA to fully regain control and sustain bullish confidence.
Current Market Sentiment
What we’ve seen up to now is a test of strength from both sides. AUDUSD, after leaning heavily on support around past consolidation limits, attempted a breakout. It managed to claw its way through a previously stubborn range and even poked above the 200-day moving average — a level often eyed in technical setups to gauge trend direction. This suggested, temporarily at least, that buying interest was gaining momentum. Buyers managed to push the pair to a new short-term high at 0.65135, marking a strong push from earlier lows.
However, after the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, the upward push lost its grip. Price action dipped again below the key 200-day moving average, suggesting a sense of uncertainty among market participants. That zone, around 0.64587, has now shifted from being a gateway to bullish continuation to a ceiling that sellers are actively defending. We saw this in clear terms when an attempt to rebound on Thursday was quickly met with resistance at that level, halting progress as offers entered the market.
Most recently, in the Asian session, demand re-emerged near an upward-sloping trendline. Technicians looking at shorter-term charts may note that this trendline has helped stabilise price swings in the past few weeks. That bounce lifted the price once more through the 100-bar moving average on the four-hour chart. Yet, gains met difficulty as the pair approached the 200-hour moving average at 0.64291 — another technical barrier where supply once again outweighed demand.
Now, what does this mean for us looking ahead? For one, there are multiple technical layers crowding the space between 0.64291 and 0.64588. The 200-hour, 100-hour, and 200-day moving averages, along with horizontal levels from past swing zones, now form a tight belt of resistance. So while bullish hopes aren’t off the table, they remain constrained beneath this cluster.
It matters little that the pair dropped off recent highs; what stands out is that AUDUSD hasn’t backed off too far. Price still trades not far beneath yearly peaks, which keeps a medium-term bullish tone alive — barely. Buyers will need to step in with more persistence and drive price clearly above the 200-day moving average on a sustained basis.
Otherwise, each failed test at these levels becomes stronger footing for sellers. If we were watching momentum flows, repeated inability to close above such moving averages reflects fading buyer commitment. For the time being, maintaining support near the rising trendline and keeping the four-hour 100-bar moving average intact provides a decent technical base. But unless we see that base convert into upward follow-through, the risk of reversion remains.
In trading the derivative side, the focus now turns to volatility around these nearby levels. With price boxed between compressing ranges and key trend points, reaction speed will matter. Even a modest shift in tone from market-moving data or shifts in relative rates could pull the pair firmly in either direction. Buying dips only works as long as floors at the trendline continue to hold — any signs that these are weakening may open the way for sharper declines.
For now, any bullish strategies need to show they’re not just hoping but backed by resilience and price closing consistently above moving averages, not just touching them briefly before retreating. Without that, recovery attempts may remain shallow.
