Insights 
VT 
EUR/USD Range Projection
EUR/USD is projected to trade within a 1.11-1.15 range in the coming weeks and months, with intra-day resistance around 1.1265. Upcoming US data, including PPI and Retail Sales, could impact currency dynamics, as could comments from Fed Chair Powell.
The foreign exchange market involves substantial risks, including potential total loss of investment. It is essential for traders to conduct thorough research and understand the associated risks before making investment decisions.
EUR/USD appears to be taking a breather just below the 1.11 handle, with buyers stepping in around this level and suppressing any deeper downside attempts. This range-bound behaviour mirrors the muted tone in eurozone releases, especially with only final GDP figures on the docket this week. Investors aren’t necessarily reacting to domestic European data right now; instead, much of the movement is hinging on what’s coming out of the United States, both from official releases and policy signals.
Market Sentiment and Influence
The March Balance of Payments figures will be watched closely following the solid equity inflows in February. If we see this trend sustain, it would not only strengthen the case for favourable sentiment towards European assets but may also provide some tailwinds to the single currency. Any confirmation of sustained foreign investment would likely tie in with earlier survey data suggesting that capital flows are beginning to favour eurozone markets again. However, we’ll want multiple months of such evidence to consider the shift durable.
Price action seems to respect a medium-term band between 1.11 and 1.15, with intraday hurdles near 1.1265 – a level that could repeatedly cap upside attempts unless momentum broadens. This resistance level comes into sharp relief on days when US releases exceed consensus, especially on key inputs such as Producer Prices or Retail Sales. Those upcoming data points could add an edge to the greenback if inflationary pressures appear sticky or consumer demand remains robust, feeding into the idea that the Federal Reserve may remain cautious on cutting rates.
Powell’s upcoming appearance will also be closely monitored. Markets have become increasingly sensitive to any shift in tone, particularly regarding labour market tightness and price stability. Should Powell echo recent remarks about the Fed’s patience, or implicitly endorse higher-for-longer rate assumptions, traders could see dollar strength re-emerge, dragging EUR/USD towards the lower bound of its range.
From our seat, short-term positioning matters more in times of tight ranges. A single surprise print or slightly hawkish tone can trigger sharp but temporary moves, often exaggerated by the lack of strong conviction either way. As volatility stays muted, probabilities tilt towards range trading strategies, rather than directional bets. Clear technical levels, rather than speculative macro views, are driving entries and exits right now.
Risk appetite will also play a secondary role. Flows into equities, particularly tech-heavy indices in the US, can peel demand away from the dollar as a safe haven. But if US yields continue to grind higher or geopolitical headlines spook global markets, we might see another leg of dollar demand emerge quickly, even without fresh economic data.
The usual caution applies: leverage amplifies changes swiftly in this environment. Staying disciplined around defined stop levels and understanding the macro triggers that could break current ranges are key in the days ahead. For now, we remain alert rather than aggressive, letting price show its hand rather than trying to force a move in either direction.
