EURUSD has recently broken below a key support area near 1.1256–1.1265, now testing this level again from the lower side. This zone includes the 61.8% retracement level of the range since the 2020 high at 1.1271, as well as the July 2023 high at 1.12754.

This area previously served as a support floor and is a pivotal point for market direction. Remaining below it keeps sellers in control and confirms the downside move.

Earlier today, the pair found support between 1.12007 and 1.1213, an area tracing back to 2024. The current bounce is testing this broken support, now resistance. If sellers hold this ceiling and push below 1.1200, the next major target is near the 50% retracement level at 1.1145.

Key levels include resistance at 1.1265–1.1275. The next downside target is between 1.1200 and 1.1213, while bears maintain short-term control below 1.1265-75. A move above this previous floor could weaken the bearish outlook and allow for potential recovery.

The market has made its intentions reasonably clear. After slipping beneath that tightly watched range near 1.1256–1.1275, price behaviour has shifted, now confirming the former support as resistance. With the 61.8% retracement from the broader move dating back to the 2020 peak sitting at 1.1271, there is considerable technical weight resting in this narrow band. What was once a floor for buyers is now acting as a firm barrier. So far, attempts to reclaim this region have been turned back, suggesting any recovery will face headwinds unless momentum builds strongly above this threshold.

We’ve observed that the reaction from 1.1200–1.1213 has been measured, not impulsive. That support, drawn from earlier this year, offered a pause but not enough to shift sentiment more broadly. The early bounce provides limited encouragement for buyers unless it draws follow-through above the broken band near 1.1275. In the absence of such a push, price may find itself exposed to renewed pressure, pushing beneath 1.1200 and eyeing the next retracement marker near 1.1145.

The narrative is being written through failed rallies. If sellers hold the ceiling intact just above 1.1260, we should expect more probing downward, with 1.1200 becoming less a question of “if” but “when.” Continuation below that line opens scope for bids near the halfway retracement level, which has a technical anchor around 1.1145—not a minor zone, not easily ignored.

There’s a pattern forming in the way price rejects higher levels without much contest. Buyers are struggling to establish anything more than temporary relief, and these retreats from resistance hint that confidence remains with the short side. As long as this continues, every modest lift may serve as another opportunity rather than a reversal.

We don’t need to rely on broad forecasts here. The levels themselves are telling. Support isn’t being strongly defended, and upside attempts are either tired or hesitant. What matters isn’t just where price travels, but how it reacts to returning to broken ground—and right now, that reaction is soft at best. Even if a short-lived rebound appears, without a close above 1.1275, the larger bearish structure stays intact.

This leaves us watching only a few key zones with real conviction. Below 1.1200 brings us into an area where price hasn’t spent much time recently, and liquidity may be less even. Should that unfold, deeper levels may be tested quicker than traders expect, particularly given how limp the upside attempts have been.

We remain cautious of buying too close to resistance. It’s faded doing so more than once lately. Let price do more than just poke above a prior level—let it hold, and let it stay. Until then, positioning should respect the slope, not fight it.