Royal Bank is well-regarded in the Zacks Banks – Foreign industry due to its earnings-beat streak. In the last two quarters, the bank reported an average earnings surprise of 7.76%.

In the most recent quarter, Royal Bank was expected to post earnings of $2.28 per share but exceeded this with $2.55 per share—a surprise of 11.84%. The prior quarter saw earnings of $2.25 per share against an estimate of $2.17, marking a 3.69% surprise.

Recent estimates for Royal Bank are trending upward, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction). Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better often outperform expectations.

An Earnings ESP of +1.49% indicates bullish analyst sentiment towards Royal Bank’s earnings. The next earnings report is due on May 29, 2025. A positive Earnings ESP and high Zacks Rank suggest the potential for another earnings beat.

Notably, a negative Earnings ESP does not imply an earnings miss but reduces predictive accuracy. Checking a company’s Earnings ESP before results can enhance decision-making. This approach helps identify stocks to consider ahead of their earnings reports.

This article outlines how Royal Bank has repeatedly outperformed earnings expectations—what’s often referred to as an “earnings beat.” Over the past two quarters, its performance has exceeded Wall Street forecasts by a fair margin, averaging nearly an 8% surprise. Last time around, analysts predicted Royal Bank would deliver $2.28 per share in earnings, but it managed $2.55—an almost 12% difference. That kind of consistency, particularly in this space, tends to get attention.

The uptick previous to that, when the bank posted $2.25 compared with an expected $2.17, was smaller yet still noteworthy. Even a 3.69% beat in that context matters, especially when dealing with names where analyst coverage leans conservative. This tells us expectations were surpassed not just once, but in two back-to-back quarters.

Right now, predictive signals are again leaning optimistic. One metric that helps track this is called the Earnings ESP, which shows the gap between the most accurate estimate and the broader consensus. Royal Bank currently shows an ESP of +1.49%, implying that the most accurate forecasts are slightly above average expectations. Historically, when a stock has a positive ESP and ranks favourably—here that means a Zacks Rank of 3 or better—it often does well around earnings.

In that light, the May 29 release might present further room for positioning. ESP doesn’t guarantee anything, but when it aligns upward with analyst ranking models, there’s a pattern worth observing. While a negative ESP can still be followed by a beat, it generally makes surprises harder to anticipate.

From our end, monitoring this movement in analyst sentiment isn’t about headline-chasing—it’s about exploring whether the recent momentum continues to hold up. A carefully timed approach based on levels of forecast divergence could provide options before the results land. Small changes in ESP percentages, like the current shift to +1.49%, are worth tracking over the next few weeks.

A bump in analyst outlook this close to the reporting window suggests adjustments are being made in light of updated internal modelling or macro exposures. These revisions—as minor as they seem—can sway positioning, mainly for those relying on shorter-term price action around key dates.

Given what’s already come through last quarter and the revision trend noted in estimates, some of us may find it sensible to watch updates more frequently. There’s enough data here to at least suggest that further deviation from consensus is on the table. Not betting on the result, but preparing for how others may react to it—that’s the real utility in understanding the current sentiment model.

None of this replaces disciplined execution, of course. Traders looking at the derivatives angle might reconsider volatility assumptions or explore strike adjustments if implied vol begins to shift ahead of May 29. Movers like this don’t often offer many windows—being early is part of the advantage.