The AUDUSD is encountering strong resistance at the 200-day moving average, pausing rallies at 0.6457 on Monday and today. Sellers have maintained control, restricting upward momentum and preserving bearish pressure.

The downside reveals a resistance zone between 0.6419 and 0.6437, filled by multiple moving averages. These include the 200-hour MA at 0.64376, the 100-hour MA at 0.64254, and the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6419.

The Price Action

The price dropped to 0.6401, slightly above the 0.6400 level, where buying support appeared. Despite this, the rebound faltered at 0.6422, keeping sellers in control below the broken MAs.

For a bullish shift, the pair must move above 0.6437 and break the 200-day MA at 0.6457, potentially reaching 0.6513, the year’s peak. A break below 0.6400 could lead to further declines to 0.6388, then to a swing area between 0.6321 and 0.63437.

Key lower supports include the 100-day MA at 0.62951 and the 38.2% retracement of the April rally at 0.62844.

The existing analysis outlines a fairly persistent resistance that has formed around the 200-day moving average, specifically capping price at 0.6457 both on Monday and again today. Attempts to climb beyond it have effectively stalled, and each rebound has so far encountered swift rejection. Sellers have used this level as a barrier to curtail further upward movement, successfully defending their position. We’ve seen that attempts to push higher have been met with consistent supply pressure, keeping momentum skewed to the downside for now.

The compression zone between 0.6419 and 0.6437 must be watched closely—it’s packed with technical friction across several timeframes, acting as both a deterrent to further gains and an area that, once breached, could accelerate price action. The presence of the 200-hour, 100-hour, and 100-bar moving averages clustering in this zone suggests that any movement above it needs to be convincing—a casual flicker above those levels won’t suffice.

The recent low at 0.6401, just above a notably round number, has attracted reasonable buying interest. But even this modest rebound was unable to sustain itself beyond 0.6422, showing that sellers remain firm and in control while the price remains underneath those broken averages. Buyers, at best, are managing to support the pair briefly before momentum recedes.

The Support and Resistance Zones

If 0.6400 cannot hold on a retest in the days ahead, a deeper move is likely. Next, we’d expect to see a test of 0.6388 before shifting attention to the lower zone spanning 0.6321 to roughly 0.6344, where previous price reactions have occurred. These levels aren’t freshly drawn either—they’ve been tested in the past and have a track record of producing reversals or temporary pauses.

Further beneath that is a double layer of support that could potentially change behaviour across shorter time frames—the 100-day moving average sitting around 0.6295, followed closely by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April rally at 0.6284. These don’t often get tested in isolation; you’d likely need a change in macro positioning or fundamental emphasis for the pair to reach those levels with force.

From a strategy standpoint, we’ve leaned away from counter-trend trades given multiple failed rally attempts. Until the 0.6437–0.6457 ceiling is broken confidently and closes are held above it, upside trades carry more risk than reward. At present, sellers continue to use these failed moves higher as entry points with protective levels slightly above that resistance band.

We’ve observed over the last several days that momentum begins to fade quickly when price approaches the upper edge of this compression zone. If trading volumes increase on a downward move—particularly on a breach below 0.6400—that shift could develop pace and pull the price to test next supports within a much shorter timeframe. Alternately, any durable breach above 0.6457, especially on a daily close, needs to include sustained follow-through beyond 0.6513 to indicate a material return of buyer strength.

For now, price action remains capped, and moving averages continue to layer above the current market. As we’ve seen, each test higher has met immediate resistance, while the support levels beneath are being pressured more frequently. Risk control is key if we remain within a range that’s tightly defined by layered resistance above and fragile support just below.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.