NASDAQ futures struggled to surpass the 21,461 resistance level on Tuesday, which is a combination of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and Value Area High. Support held at 21,311, comprising the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and Point of Control, facilitating a temporary bounce within a defined range between 21,311 and 21,461.

Throughout the mid-session, futures fluctuated around 21,405 (the VWAP mid-line) before falling below 21,360, a condition that brought the price back to 21,315 by the close. In the London session, a bullish scenario involves holding and bouncing from 21,315, with potential targets at 21,360 and 21,461 if the price closes cleanly below 21,300. Conversely, a bearish failure or rejection at 21,360 might lead to declines, with targets such as 21,251 and 21,065.

Intraday Market Analysis

For the US session, reclaiming 21,360–21,405 offers a bullish route towards 21,557 and beyond, whereas breaking below 21,315 may herald drops to 20,932 and further. Medium-term cues show a break above 21,557 turns sentiment positive, but a close below 21,405 shifts bias negatively. Proper risk management via defined stop-loss and position sizing is essential for traders.

Given the recent action around the 21,311–21,461 bracket, it’s clear we’re looking at a market confined to a fairly narrow structure, one that’s led by key volume and retracement zones. Buyers attempted to lift the index past resistance, yet the presence of sellers at both the Fibonacci cluster and Value Area High kept that effort in check. The repeated bounce off 21,311 reinforces its importance not just technically, but behaviourally—traders continue responding to it as a line in the sand.

We watched the price dance around the VWAP line during the mid-session, constantly testing but never finding conviction. The loss of grip below 21,360 pushed futures back towards their earlier low, hinting at fragile control from buyers. If prices can’t grab hold above the 21,360–21,405 corridor soon, we’re likely to revisit downside zones, where the next potential support rests, rather precisely, near 21,251. Below that, attention drifts even further down toward 21,065, and those lower zones begin to threaten the broader trend structure.

From a shorter-term angle, if buyers can keep the price above 21,315—and more importantly, sustain movement through 21,360 towards 21,461—shorter momentum strategies get tailwind. That’s the momentum threshold we’re watching. If these levels are reclaimed before US cash open, the next upside marker is closer to 21,557. Should this level get cleared, it opens the gates for strength to accelerate, at least in the short term, and that might shift positioning more broadly in favour of the long side.

Technical Support and Resistance

However, if the bounce is weak and fails near 21,360 again, sellers are likely to become more active, pressing into gaps left behind in earlier sessions. The 21,251 mark becomes a natural magnet in this case—not just a destination, but a guidepost, as the underlying volume support between 21,200–21,250 is thin and therefore vulnerable. Below 21,251, the drop could accelerate towards 20,932, where heavier volume interest is noted.

Short-term traders need to pay attention to the precision of closes rather than simply intraday spikes. A sustained candle below 21,315 would change the picture entirely. Bulls would need to retreat and reassess, while bears could look to capitalise on lower supports. We view 21,315 as an early warning level—lose that on a clean basis, and further optimism is misplaced, at least for the session.

Risk calibration is still the cornerstone here. Those trading larger exposures or using leverage need to avoid reactive entries, particularly in a rotational regime like this. Predefined exits and lot sizing according to volatility are now non-negotiables. The failure to stick to disciplined entry zones around confluence levels has already cost several late-positioned trades. At this stage, reliance on momentum alone will continue to produce mixed results, especially without confirmation from volume shifts.

Lastly, from a wider standpoint, only a clear daily close above 21,557 would reconfigure broader positioning. Until that happens, prices are stuck in a back-and-forth rotation, offering range-bound opportunities, but likely frustrating directional players. Keep a close watch not just on where prices go—but how long they remain there.

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