The AUD/NZD pair rose slightly on Friday, trading near 1.0800 after the European session. This movement reflects a bullish tone as the market moves into the Asian session, with buyers in control despite some longer-term resistance levels.

Technically, the pair signals a bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index is neutral near 55, showing balanced momentum. The MACD provides a buy signal reinforcing the positive tone. Both the Bull Bear Power and Ultimate Oscillator remain neutral, indicating no extreme momentum.

Short Term Trend Analysis

The short-term trend supports further gains, with the 10-day and 20-day Simple Moving Averages below current prices, offering dynamic support. However, the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages remain above current levels, pointing to selling pressure that may cap medium-term gains.

Support levels are at 1.0837, 1.0825, and 1.0811, while resistance is at 1.0866, 1.0883, and 1.0925. A move above resistance could confirm a broader breakout, whereas a fall below support might lead to a short-term correction.

The recent uptick in AUD/NZD, holding near 1.0800 after the European session, hints at renewed buying interest. What we’re seeing here is a fairly methodical shift in sentiment, backed by decent technical footing, but not necessarily pointing to uncharted territory yet. The market seems to be leaning cautiously higher as we head into the Asian sessions, with buyers maintaining light control, though longer-term resistance remains a visible hurdle.

Digging deeper into the indicators: while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 55, it’s neither stretched nor retreating, which shows that momentum hasn’t yet detached from equilibrium. That means there’s room for the impulse to either build or unwind—depending entirely on the next catalyst. MACD is flashing green, which supports the current upward grind. However, other indicators like the Bull Bear Power and Ultimate Oscillator are sitting on neutral ground. These tools usually confirm when a move is either overextended or unsustainable, but right now, they’re keeping quiet. That silence? It’s telling us this move might continue—unless sentiment shifts sharply.

Market Levels and Potential Movements

From a trend-following perspective, things remain reasonably aligned in the near term. The 10-day and 20-day simple moving averages are comfortably underneath price, which is often viewed as a gentle tailwind. That’s not nothing. It means recent buying has been steady enough to tilt momentum in the bulls’ favour over the past month. However, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain directly overhead, an area markets tend to test and reject when buyers aren’t quite strong enough. These longer-term averages have acted as reality checks before, and they’re likely to stiffen resistance again.

We tend to pay attention to levels because they matter more when flow is indecisive, and that’s very much where we are. Right now, price is bouncing between visible bookends: 1.0866 and 1.0883 to the upside, and 1.0837 down to 1.0811 on the lower edge. Climbing above 1.0883 would suggest more sustained demand, possibly triggering mechanical stop orders and pushing the market toward 1.0925. But if price dips below 1.0811 instead, it may invite a short and tactical downside push—possibly aimed at shaking out recent long positions.

Given how the indicators are lining up, there’s merit in looking at setups that favour a mildly bullish stance, though only so long as price holds well above the nearby supports. Some pullbacks would still be considered healthy, perhaps even necessary, if another leg higher is to materialise. What we’re monitoring now is whether buyers begin to lose conviction the closer we get to those longer-term moving average barriers. Should that falter begin, there’s probably a window—albeit narrow—for reversals or diversions in momentum.

Ultimately, this isn’t the type of chart that screams long-term commitment. But there’s just enough stacked on the short side of the moving average curve, and not enough warning flags in the oscillators, to keep expectations modestly up-tempo in the near term. Traders would be better off focussing on entries closer to short-term support, using those levels not just as risk control boundaries, but more as initiation points for tactical intraweek positions. It’s in these tighter spaces that the leverage pays off—provided the stops are placed with discipline.

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