Technically Bullish Bias

The structure is supported by upward-sloping 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages below current price action. The 10-day EMA and SMA also point higher providing dynamic support on minor pullbacks.

Support levels are at 1.1344, 1.1332, and 1.1331, while resistance is near 1.1370. A move above could boost bullish momentum, while failing to hold support might pause the uptrend without threatening the overall structure.

Market Setup and Outlook

From our perspective, the current setup in the EUR/USD pair reveals a market that’s leaning higher but lacking decisive follow-through in either direction. Price is coasting just below the 1.1300 mark, and while we continue to sit comfortably above key moving averages, short-term technical signals are pulling in different directions.

Let’s break this down. The long-term structure continues to show strength. Price has been carving out a path above the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. The angle of those moving averages confirms that momentum over the broader horizon is still pushing upward. This type of alignment often acts as a gravity-defying cushion on dips, giving traders a reason to defend pullbacks when they occur.

However, intraday measures don’t hold the same conviction. The MACD sends a bearish crossover — a subtle warning that immediate buying pressure is subsiding. Meanwhile, the RSI, which continues to hover below 60, offers little reassurance of follow-through strength. It shows that, while buyers did have the upper hand, they’re not driving this at full throttle just now. We’re in a zone ripe for either sideways consolidation or a shallow retracement.

Short-term tools like the Awesome Oscillator and Stochastic %K underline this hesitation, operating neither in strong buy nor sell territory. When those two stall in neutral zones and MACD turns down, it’s often a sign momentum is drifting, at least in the immediate term. That creates space for rangebound moves until traders have reason to act more decisively.

So it makes sense to focus less on chasing immediate breakouts and more on stability around key levels. For now, the 1.1344 to 1.1331 region provides the base to hold. If sellers break through it, the uptrend pauses, though it likely won’t reverse unless deeper technical breaks follow. Above, the 1.1370 barrier is the one to watch. If price makes a firm move beyond there on volume and with supporting indicators, more room to the upside could open tactically.

In environments like this, we continue monitoring for confirmation before taking heavily directional positions. It’s not the spot for aggressive entries, unless accompanied by renewed volume or data catalysts. Until then, we lean slightly long, respecting the structure—but only with tight control on sizing and clear stop placements near ascending trend guides.

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