The AUD/NZD pair trades near 1.0900, showing steady movement and a bullish tone as it approaches the Asian session. Buyers maintain control despite mixed signals from momentum indicators and short-term moving averages favour an upward direction, with longer-term resistance still present.

Technically, the pair exhibits a cautious bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index remains neutral in the 60s, and a buy signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence supports the uptrend. However, the Williams Percent Range and Stochastic RSI Fast indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a potential for a short-term pullback.

Short Term Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages, including the 10-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages, support the bullish sentiment around current price levels. The 20-day Simple Moving Average further strengthens this positive tone, while the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages above the price suggest broader resistance.

Key support levels are identified at 1.0870, 1.0870, and 1.0860, with resistance at 1.0910, 1.0920, and 1.0950. Breaking above resistance could suggest a breakout, while falling below support might trigger a correction toward the recent range’s lower end.

The AUD/NZD pair is holding close to the 1.0900 level, showing a stable yet directional push higher as we transition through the quieter Asian session. What we’re seeing, in plain terms, is a market that continues to lean toward the upside, but not without a few warning signs. Price action is orderly—buoyed by short-dated indicators—but not euphoric.

Momentum tools are starting to diverge. The RSI, while comfortably neutral in the mid-60s, suggests buying hasn’t overheated completely, giving some confidence that the move higher still has room. The MACD continues to offer a confirmed buy signal, further reinforcing the view that recent gains are underpinned by momentum. That said, both the Williams Percent Range and Stochastic RSI Fast flashing overbought readings tell us speculative interest may be ahead of itself. This doesn’t necessarily mean a reversal is imminent, but it often precedes intervals of sideways drift or shallow retreat while the market consolidates.

The shorter-term moving averages—10-day exponential and simple—are sloping upwards, coiling just beneath the current price. They act as a springboard for any further upside and tend to attract dip buyers when touched. Slightly longer-term, the 20-day simple is also aligned bullishly, providing further stability to the immediate trend. However, stepping back further, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are still overhead, suggesting that long-position holders haven’t cleared the more entrenched resistance levels yet. We’re not out of the woods from a longer-horizon perspective.

Support zones are well-defined. The range between 1.0870 to 1.0860 has caught earlier dips, and price has rebounded strongly after interactions with those levels. If price retraces in the coming sessions, that’s where we’d expect participation to return. Below that, however, you’re entering territory that could invite more aggressive profit-taking or even short entries if confirmed by broader risk sentiment.

Resistance Levels and False Breaks

Likewise, to the upside, there’s a layer of resistance that the market hasn’t quite overcome yet. The area between 1.0910 to 1.0950 holds rising importance. A break and close above this range, with sustained volume and no immediate rejection, may lead to a stronger directional move. Often when this type of zone gives way, intraday traders need to adapt quickly, either by allowing trades more space or by adjusting risk profiles according to new volatility levels.

As we move through the week, the interplay between technical overextensions and supportive trend structures continues to matter. Day-to-day, any sharp shifts in regional economic updates or shifts in interest rate expectations may catch traders offside. If price remains capped under those medium-term averages and oscillators roll over, the immediate bullish tone could shift into a range-bound correction. At that point, attention would shift toward trade management rather than directional conviction.

We should be mindful of false breaks in this environment—where the pair peeks above resistance or dips below support just briefly, only to revert within the established range. Patience, in this context, becomes more valuable than trying to pre-empt reversals. Wait for triggers that align across more than one timeframe, and let the confirmation lead, rather than assumptions tied to earlier moves.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.