Insights 
VT 
In the European session, inflation reports for Switzerland and the Eurozone will be released. The Swiss CPI year-on-year is anticipated at -0.1%, compared to 0.0% previously. There is a 32% probability of a 50 basis points cut at the upcoming Swiss National Bank meeting. A lower-than-expected Swiss CPI could heighten expectations for a larger cut.
The Eurozone CPI year-on-year is expected at 2.0% compared to 2.2% prior, while the Core CPI is anticipated at 2.5% versus 2.7% prior. There is a 95% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut this week, with another anticipated by year-end. The European Central Bank has indicated a planned cut in June, with a pause until at least September.
American Session Job Openings
In the American session, April US Job Openings are projected at 7.100 million, down from 7.192 million. This follows Trump’s tariffs and their subsequent pause. Expectations for the report’s impact are minimal given its dated nature.
Central bank speakers scheduled include BoE’s Bailey at 09:15 GMT, Fed’s Goolsbee at 16:45 GMT, Fed’s Cook at 17:00 GMT, and Fed’s Logan at 19:30 GMT.
We’ve just seen inflation data for both Switzerland and the Euro area prepare to move markets with fresh input. The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to come in just below zero, at -0.1% year-on-year, versus the flat reading last month. That would mark a mild decline, albeit not enough to trigger alarm bells alone. However, this slight undershoot gives added weight to growing bets on a deeper rate cut from the Swiss National Bank this month. Traders have already priced in a one-in-three chance of a 50 basis points reduction, and a softer CPI print would likely pull that probability higher.
As for the Eurozone, inflation appears to be responding gently to monetary tightening. The headline CPI is forecast to ease to 2.0% from 2.2%, while the core measure could slip to 2.5%, down from 2.7%. Markets consider a 25 basis points cut from the European Central Bank almost guaranteed at this stage—pricing suggests 95% certainty. Policymakers have already signalled this move, pointing to a June reduction followed by a wait-and-see approach until at least the end of summer, though further steps depend heavily on subsequent inflation readings and wage data.
Implications For Traders
From our vantage point, softer inflation on both fronts acts as a flashing signal for front-end traders. Compression of rate differentials among CHF and EUR instruments becomes harder to ignore, particularly in front-month interest rate markets. Options flows and positioning this week are likely to shift towards steeper easing curves. Any bond traders holding neutral stances should consider reassessing their exposure as a 50 basis points move by the SNB remains underpriced relative to the risk.
Turning attention stateside, the US job openings figure, especially given it’s based on April data, may not cause much of a stir. Expectations stand at 7.1 million, slightly shy of the previous 7.192 million. While that’s a modest drop, it lacks the timeliness required to influence forward guidance from the Federal Reserve in any meaningful way. The figure comes in the shadow of trade tensions triggered earlier this quarter—tariff threats that were later rolled back—but most observers agree that today’s data will likely serve more as background than as a driver.
What may move the dial are scheduled remarks from central bankers across both the UK and the US. Bailey is first to speak in the morning, with Goolsbee, Cook, and Logan all lined up through the American session. Their words matter more now, given the delicate positioning of short-end futures. Any deviation from previously stated policy paths would likely be met with swift repricing. We’ve noted increased sensitivity in swap spreads and in SOFR rate vol since last week—these could react quickly to unexpected tonal shifts.
The takeaway here: fixed income desks should watch for unexpected dovish or hawkish commentary more than headlines that are now largely old news. Meanwhile, euro and Swiss franc vol sellers may find themselves rethinking strategies if downside prints continue. For traders, it remains a time to focus on what’s forward-looking, not backward-glancing.
