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EU Finalizing Countermeasures
EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic is set to meet US Trade Representative Greer in Paris on Wednesday. This meeting comes amid recent tensions, with Trump threatening a 50% tariff on the EU to expedite trade negotiations.
The tariff was paused until a deadline set for 9th July. Trump recently increased tariffs on steel to 50%, prompting a response from the European Commission. They declared their readiness to retaliate against the tariffs on steel and aluminium.
A spokesperson from the EU mentioned that the European Commission is finalising consultations on expanded countermeasures. If a mutually acceptable solution is not reached, existing and new EU measures will come into effect on 14th July.
What’s laid out above is clear: tensions between both sides of the Atlantic are hardening, with steel and aluminium at the heart of the disagreement. The European Commission is poised to respond, and deadlines are not merely symbolic—they are tied to tangible policy shifts. It’s not speculative either. The steel tariffs are already in place, and the talk of a 50% levy on broader EU goods isn’t just a threat—it’s a card being held face-up on the table until 9th July. That’s a little over one week to steer things back or risk sharp responses.
Sefcovic’s meeting with Greer in Paris isn’t routine diplomacy. It’s more of a test of whether discussion can still hold value before hard measures start taking effect. Preparations are already underway for retaliatory action. The EU’s spokesperson was plain about that. There is no ambiguity—countermeasures are almost ready to go. We sense the Commission doesn’t intend to walk empty-handed into the second week of July.
For many who operate with exposure to transatlantic supply networks and pricing, particularly in heavy industry and manufacturing inputs, the window to adjust is narrowing quickly. Margins that hinge on price predictability are unlikely to benefit from waiting past early July. That date is not abstract—it’s when concrete policy shifts are expected to either begin or be called off. By the 14th, the EU will have moved forward with its measures, barring a sudden diplomatic reversal.
Implications On Market Volatility
Markets are not blind to the shape of this escalation. Steel and aluminium pricing has already begun to reflect the uncertainty, as have the hedging volumes across products that rely on these base commodities. Sourcing decisions and contract re-evaluations should not be left until after announcements. The timing of each side’s next move has already been made public. It would be unusual, risky even, to be caught off-guard after both sides have been relatively transparent about their timelines.
From where we stand, it’s time to watch not just the political statements but the procedural actions—the publishing of measures, the legal notices, the consultations being locked in. These are the steps that lend weight to rhetoric. When the Commission makes statements like this, they tend to follow through.
Based on these developments, price volatility in related contracts could rise further. Moreover, liquidity may tighten in certain corners of the derivatives market, especially for those contracts tied to transatlantic trade volumes or industrial inputs. As we evaluate our exposures, standing still may mean absorbing shocks that are being telegraphed now.
One more item worth noting is the sequencing. If Commission responses land on the 14th, and the US deadline is the 9th, the five-day gap may become particularly volatile. Whether or not we’re trading the linked assets directly, correlations tend to spike during these kinds of tariff skirmishes—particularly across raw materials, shipping, and energy-intensive production.
