Gold prices in Pakistan increased on Monday, reaching 30,459.35 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram from PKR 30,021.41 last Friday. The cost per tola also rose to PKR 355,271.90 from PKR 350,163.80.
Measurements show a gram of Gold at PKR 30,459.35, ten grams at PKR 304,593.50, a tola at PKR 355,271.90, and a troy ounce at PKR 947,392.50. Price calculations are influenced by the USD/PKR exchange rate and are updated daily.
Gold As A Safe Asset
Gold’s historic role has been as a store of value and medium of exchange. Beyond its use in jewellery, it is considered a secure asset in unstable times and a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.
Central banks, particularly from emerging economies like China, India, and Turkey, are major Gold buyers, helping to stabilise economies. In 2022, central banks collectively purchased 1,136 tonnes, the highest annual record.
Gold typically has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar and Treasuries, both reserve assets. Price fluctuations can occur due to geopolitical instability, interest rate changes, and the US Dollar’s value.
Given the jump in gold prices in PKR terms—from PKR 30,021.41 per gram to PKR 30,459.35—there’s an underlying pressure building around currency strength and perceived market risk. The movement reflects not only domestic dynamics, such as inflation risks or rupee weakness, but also broader signals from international demand and monetary policy paths elsewhere.
Gold’s traction often builds when discomfort spreads in traditional equity or bond markets. With the recent rise fuelled in part by exchange rate adjustments, it points to a broader reaction to monetary uncertainty. From our standpoint, this makes attention to cross-currency impacts even more essential, especially for those who rely on leveraged positions or dollar-denominated contracts for short-term price exposure.
Understanding Domestic Gold Pricing
The sharpness in the tola and ounce values—now touching over PKR 355,000 and nearing PKR 947,000 respectively—should not be interpreted in isolation. These figures suggest that domestic pricing isn’t just reacting to global benchmarks but is being stretched by the rupee’s performance against the dollar. Traders positioning in derivatives over the next few weeks should be examining forward signals from both the foreign exchange and fixed income market. Volatility in short-term yields, for instance, often gives earlier hints compared to broader policy moves.
The bulk buying by institutional actors like PBoC or the RBI reflects more than precaution—it projects enduring confidence in physical storage amid rising policy divergence. When Naseer points to China adding tonnes consistently month after month, it’s an affirmation that the larger players aren’t chasing short-term rallies but responding to prolonged shifts in purchasing power and global liquidity.
With gold following its usual inverse drift against US Treasuries and the greenback, we are now in a configuration where higher interest rate expectations do not always bring down bullion costs in local currencies. That decoupling trend, which became clearer in 2023, remains active. This adds complexity if you’re managing contracts that rely on consistent inverse logic for hedging.
Central banks’ year-end purchases to the tune of 1,136 tonnes—as reported by the WGC—establish the metal’s anchor-like character. It’s clear that this demand uptick in safer holdings isn’t about momentary volatility, but about preparing for currency uncertainty, which could deepen as major economies reassess their inflation targets and fiscal deficits.
Differentials between spot and futures prices are something we’ve been monitoring closely. Any steepening in the forward curve could hint at tightening liquidity or forward hedging activity. There are no shortcuts here; waiting on major signals from geopolitical fronts or even domestic fiscal steps will leave contracts vulnerable if not reassessed daily. So focus should be sharpened on very short-dated movements.
Barring unexpected events, we still anticipate wider swings driven primarily by macro data sets from the US, especially given how tightly gold tracks with inflation prints and rate path forecasts. Aligning strike prices closely with these data release windows could make the difference between profitable rolls and adverse carry costs.
What we are seeing is less of a speculative surge, and more of a deliberate shift toward value preservation. The data isn’t pointing to panic accumulation. It reflects a recalibration—a transfer back into tangibles by agents who view paper as less predictable in the coming months.
