Insights 
VT 
Japan’s industrial production saw an increase, marking a year-on-year rise to 1% in March from a previous decline of 0.3%. This change indicates an improvement in industrial output compared to previous figures.
The EUR/USD pair recovered its losses, trading near 1.1200, aided by a weaker US Dollar influenced by recent US economic releases. Similarly, the GBP/USD pair moved higher, around 1.3310, due to softer US Dollar performance and positive UK GDP data.
Gold Market Dynamics
Gold prices struggled to build on recent recovery from a low of $3,120, facing resistance during the Asian session. The US-China trade truce for 90 days relieved some market pressure, impacting the bullion market.
Bitcoin’s price neared a potential breakout level of $105,000, a determinant for future control held by bulls. Meanwhile, Ethereum and Ripple maintained support levels that might influence future price directions.
Confusion surrounds the UK’s first-quarter growth surge, raising questions about the reliability of data reflecting economic conditions. As the Forex market evolves, finding an appropriate broker with competitive offerings is crucial for effective EUR/USD trading in 2025.
Currency Market Analysis
The recent uptick in Japan’s industrial production, moving from a 0.3% annual decline to a 1% rise in March, points to a rebound in factory output. This shift highlights some renewed global demand or improving domestic sentiment, perhaps even both. It’s a shift worth noting not just for exporters in Tokyo, but for those of us watching Asia’s broader manufacturing indicators for positioning.
On the currency front, the Euro regained its footing against the US Dollar, edging back towards the 1.1200 level. It wasn’t so much a Euro surge, but rather a retreat by the Dollar after weaker US economic data. Similarly, Sterling found strength—it hovered near 1.3310 after a pick-up in Britain’s GDP figures. The soft patch in US data created the opening; the UK’s stronger prints did enough to keep the candle lit.
For us tracking macro-sensitive currency pairings, the way the Dollar behaves in response to upcoming inflation reads and labour market numbers will influence not only direction but also how longer-dated options skew. With the Euro and Pound both pushing into upper range territory, those pricing volatility should be preparing for moves outside of recent comfort zones, however briefly they may last.
Meanwhile, gold has struggled to build on its bounce from the $3,120 area. It seemed ready to climb further, but the ascent stalled in the Asian session. The 90-day pause in US-China tariff skirmishes took some of the heat out of the metals market. With reduced demand for safe havens and fewer headlines spurring buying, resistance levels above current trading bands remain intact. This should narrow short-term positioning and reopen a focus on real yield spreads.
Crypto watchers saw Bitcoin drifting close to a potential breakout near $105,000. Price hovered at a level that, if cleared, could shift control to buyers assuming enough volume follows. Ethereum and Ripple didn’t generate similar momentum but held their known support zones. Those supports are not coincidental—they’re anchored to broader network activity and investor positioning, not just spot buyers. Derivatives desks focusing on crypto-indexed instruments may need to watch those lower bands. Volatility tends to spike when those supports crack, not when they’re respected.
The UK’s early-year growth figures sparked more questions than confidence. The speed of the reported rebound doesn’t quite mesh with other concurrent data, and that inconsistency muddies the signal. For now, it’s more useful to lean on leading indicators than to retool models around just one quarter’s print. That said, trading implied volatility on GBP crosses could benefit from this disconnect—uncertainty tends to support premiums on both sides of strike.
In the coming sessions, one thing is clear: reaction to US macro data—whether inflation reads or employment trends—will continue to influence most other pricing. Sharp directional movement can be expected around high-frequency US data points. Model recalibration may need to prioritise those catalysts, particularly if current divergence themes deepen. Risk strategies involving EUR/USD should especially consider forward guidance routes rather than spot relief rallies.
