Insights 
VT 
The European session will reveal the final PMI readings for the UK and major European economies. Market pricing is unlikely to be influenced unless there are large revisions.
During the American session, attention will turn to the Canadian Manufacturing PMI, the final S&P Global US PMI, and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Traditionally, the ISM report impacts market movements, with recent soft data showing improvement, and market participants will assess inflationary pressures.
Central Bank Activities
In terms of central bank activities, several speakers are scheduled. At 14:15 GMT, Fed’s Logan, a non-voter, will speak. Following this, ECB’s Lagarde and Fed’s Goolsbee, both voters, will deliver speeches at 16:30 GMT and 16:45 GMT respectively. At 17:00 GMT, Fed Chair Powell will address markets, and the day will conclude with BoE’s Mann, a voter, at 21:30 GMT.
The data already on the docket points to a day where much of the movement may come less from surprise figures and more through interpretation of tone, trends, and how past expectations stack up to final reads. Purchasing Managers’ Index numbers for the UK and Europe, once confirmed, are unlikely to trigger large revisions in pricing unless they deviate sharply from the flash estimates. Traders should not view them as triggers in isolation. Instead, it’s more useful to monitor how firms approach hiring and inventory, which often telegraph broader changes a few months out.
ISM data in the US is where more weight sits, partly because its longer track record has given it more influence. Historically, when manufacturing figures shift, we’ve often seen yield curves and risk assets move within hours. Recent soft readings have started to inch upward, suggesting a reacceleration narrative could be forming—especially as production components strengthen. For now, markets remain alert to any signs within pricing or supplier delivery times that could hint at lingering cost pressures. It’s rarely about the headline alone.
Monetary Policy Signals
Turning to monetary policy signals, there will be a dense cluster of central bank remarks later in the day. While not every speaker moves markets equally, the sequence matters. Early remarks from Logan, though less impactful due to her status this year, might shape early expectations. Lagarde’s appearance will be closely followed, particularly given how near the ECB sits to making shifts in guidance. Traders with euro exposure will likely focus on whether she lends support to expectations of rate cuts before the summer.
Later, Goolsbee and Powell are expected. With Powell speaking last among Fed members today, we expect any adjustments to market direction to come late in the session. Powell, in particular, has served as a stabilising force lately, often pushing back against overly bullish takes. Should his language be more open-ended or if he discusses labour supply in detail, traders may need to consider implications for terminal rate changes—even if not immediate.
Mann finishes the lineup, but markets will already be drawing conclusions by then. Her comments have often swayed GBP rates, particularly when she’s diverged from the more dovish members. If she signals discomfort with recent inflation stickiness, we might see short-term rate expectations adjust—however subtly.
From a positioning perspective, we think timing becomes especially relevant here. Instead of gaming each release, it’s more practicable to assess how expectations get reset afterwards. Implied volatility has been softening, which ironically increases the potential for sharp reactions if surprises do occur. Meanwhile, options flows are already indicating hedging interest around Powell’s slot. For that reason, we’ve scaled exposure moderately while widening the duration of some positions.
It’s not only about what’s said, but how it’s said—and how close we are to inflection points in policy thinking. Occasions like these require more attention to tone, not just text.
