Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports grew by 12.4% in April compared to the previous year, exceeding predictions and accelerating from March’s 5.4% increase. Enterprise Singapore released these figures, noting strong growth in both electronic and non-electronic exports.

The increase was much higher than the 4.3% rise predicted by a Reuters poll, driven by demand from key partners like the U.S., Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. However, exports to China and Malaysia saw a decrease.

Economic Resilience Taskforce

Despite this positive result, the outlook is uncertain due to rising global trade tensions, accentuated by new U.S. tariffs. Singapore’s trade-reliant economy is at risk from a potential global downturn. To address this, the government has established an economic resilience taskforce. The government has revised its GDP growth forecast for the year down to 0% to 2%, from an earlier 1% to 3%.

This latest set of export data points to a notable improvement in overseas demand for goods manufactured or shipped out of Singapore, particularly those tied to the electronics sector. April’s 12.4% increase paints a picture of growing momentum across key product categories, suggesting that manufacturers are finding support from global demand despite mounting international stresses. Compared with March’s 5.4% rise, the quickened pace underlines the extent of this rebound.

Strikingly, the result thrashed prior estimates — the Reuters poll had anticipated a more modest 4.3% increase. This divergence implies that trade activity is recovering faster than expected in select markets, especially in advanced economies like the United States and Japan, where business investment and consumer appetite have remained surprisingly robust. On the other hand, weaker data for shipments to China and Malaysia flags a split in global demand patterns — a split we cannot ignore.

Lim, speaking on behalf of Enterprise Singapore, indicated both electronic and non-electronic segments had delivered strong showings. We see this as consistent with wider trends in semiconductor demand, especially as AI-related hardware orders pick up again. Taiwanese and South Korean buyers, in particular, appear to be increasing their orders in line with downstream assembly and packaging capacity ramping back up.

Global Trade Challenges

However, not everything is heading in a favourable direction. The newly introduced U.S. tariffs — targeting a broad swathe of Chinese goods — are adding friction to global trade. These changes affect pricing and supply chain decisions well beyond the U.S. and China themselves, in effect dragging third-party economies like Singapore into the dispute. While the current export figure provides some reassurance, it doesn’t make the broader situation any less precarious.

The formation of a focussed economic resilience taskforce by the government reflects this. Policymakers appear to be bracing not only for interruptions in trade flows but also possible spillovers into investment and employment channels. The trimmed GDP forecast now ranges from 0% to 2%, down from an earlier 1% to 3%, giving us a clearer idea that downside risks are not just theoretical.

Looking slightly ahead, we should anchor our short-term strategies around tightening liquidity and more volatile cross-border sentiment. With softer prospects ahead for China, and continued friction in East Asia, short gamma positions linked to regional exports may need active management. Hedging through options tied to major partners’ currencies should remain high on the checklist, particularly as shipping volumes loosen their month-to-month correlation with headline growth figures.

In addition, this divergence between strong electronics performance and weaker links to China offers a cue: sector rotation and country-specific exposure need to be watched closely. Small shifts in tariffs or sentiment might swing month-on-month flows rapidly enough to disrupt comfortable directional trades. Patience may prove more valuable than conviction in this environment, where volatility doesn’t always come from the usual places.

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