Greer expressed optimism regarding the progress of negotiations with the EU. He noted that a recent meeting with Sefcovic was ‘very constructive’, contributing to increased trade optimism in the markets.

The discussions are advancing quickly, which boosts hopes for a positive outcome. Greer’s remarks suggest a favourable atmosphere surrounding these negotiations.

Progress in Negotiations

This latest statement by Greer, emphasising the progress made during the most recent round of discussions with Sefcovic, indicates that talks are moving at a pace not commonly seen in previous months. He described the engagement as ‘very constructive’—a phrase that signals improvement and signals that both negotiating parties may be edging closer to a practical resolution.

For us, this shift toward greater cooperation has immediate implications. The market’s reaction—specifically in trade-sensitive sectors—underscores where sentiment currently sits. Equities linked to cross-border supply chains have seen sharper movements in recent sessions, and futures volumes have aligned similarly. Forward positioning in regional indices now points to an increased confidence that an agreement, or at least the framework for one, will emerge sooner rather than later.

That being said, pricing in these expectations requires careful positioning. Spreads on euro-sterling pairs have tightened marginally, suggesting derivative exposures are being rebalanced with more conviction. The index options market, particularly front-end expiries, began to reflect that optimism first, but the longer-dated contracts are beginning to follow. This pattern often signals a broader shift in policy expectations, and not merely a temporary bump caused by headlines.

Market Shifts and Volatility

From our standpoint, directional trades—even those slightly out of the money—have become more attractive when coupled with protective structures. We’ve seen strike prices clustering near current forward levels, with implied volatility still subdued enough to make weekly gamma worth a closer look.

Derivative traders, if watching closely, will note that this type of policy dialogue—once speculative—is now translating into tangible volatility pockets. That allows us to revisit some of the pricing assumptions we’ve held over the past quarter. Theta decay remains manageable, particularly in shorter-tenor plays where risk-reward has improved.

There’s nothing abstract about why markets are moving. The sharpness with which risk premiums have compressed reflects not a return to complacency, but a re-pricing due to the nature of the new information. Greer’s message, wrapped in diplomatic phrasing, gives more away than it holds back. And as alignment grows between commentary and trade volumes, it becomes easier to model—and more rewarding to take a view.

What matters in the coming weeks isn’t simply direction, but timing. Market participants are now rotating their focus inwardly, scrutinising whether to hold exposure into scheduled negotiation updates, or reduce deltas beforehand. The liquidity windows around these events have already begun to narrow slightly—an early tell most will recognise from past trade cycles.

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