Insights 
VT 
Gold prices increased by 2% at the start of the week, climbing back above the $3,300 mark. Last week’s decline was halted by the 50.0 Fibonacci retracement level, allowing for a recovery.
The current price surge has surpassed the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at $3,270 and $3,294, respectively. This has shifted the short-term outlook to a more bullish stance.
Ongoing Factors In Gold’s Rise
Ongoing factors that contributed to gold’s rise in March and April continue to affect the market. Unresolved issues between the US and China persist, with uncertainty surrounding tariff plans.
Optimism exists about reducing tariff levels to 50% or 60%. However, questions remain about the permanence of tariffs. This ongoing situation may result in long-term negative impacts, which broader markets have yet to fully assess.
What we’ve seen so far is a clear rebound in gold’s near-term trend, underpinned by technical factors and external developments. Prices bouncing at a textbook Fibonacci level shows that buyers stepped in as expected, possibly layering in long positions after last week’s selling found a natural floor. The move through both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages signals momentum shifting back toward the upside, especially for timeframes aligning with intraday or short-dated contracts.
Sustained Uncertainty In The Market
Importantly, it’s the sustained uncertainty driving this—not a momentary headline. Tariff negotiations remain unresolved, and although some soft expectations for scaled-back measures are circulating, they aren’t delivering clarity on long-term trade rules. That is key. When policies look temporary, they distort hedging strategies and skew risk pricing—including in sectors not immediately touched by metals.
Short-dated options volumes have seen mild increases, reflecting that some expect more movement. With gold slipping back into its tighter spreads during April, demand for protection on either side—be it through straddles or directional plays—could grow. Price action moving above previous average levels opens the case for bullish bias in price-setting models.
We should also mention that broader equity markets seem to be absorbing too little of the structural risks involved. Earlier expectations for a de-escalation in tariffs have been slowly unwinding, but pricing in gold appears to have picked up that slack more faithfully. That disparity could support further bids, especially if inflation-linked metrics start ticking upwards again.
Stress indicators across Asian exchanges haven’t spiked, but we can’t rule out latent reactions to restrictive trade flows resurfacing in the coming sessions. Slowdowns in goods movement—perceived or otherwise—have historically aligned with increased demand for havens. There’s also no fresh suggestion that central banks will shift their aggregate demand for bullion.
Any upward movement near this threshold may attract some unwinding of short gamma exposure. That could lead to steeper late-day accelerations if levels near $3,320 are tested again. Seasonally, May tends to bring flatter curves, but geopolitical themes often disrupt that pattern.
Volatility projections from implied measures have stayed subdued, which doesn’t quite match the underlying uncertainty. That could make tail protection slightly underpriced at the moment. We’re seeing strategies priced as if the worst risks are temporary rather than structural.
If prices close the week near these thresholds, there’s no compelling reason to expect buyers to exit abruptly. Medium-dated contracts, particularly with interest rate pressuring less aggressively than in Q1, might continue to draw long-side bias. We need to watch resistance bands around $3,325—if breached, momentum models may kick into tighter bands with more responsive delta hedging.
