Goldman Sachs anticipates OPEC+ to boost production by 410,000 barrels per day in August, then maintain a steady output from September onwards. The bank maintains a cautious view on oil prices, pointing to strong supply growth outside of U.S. shale as a reason for lower price predictions.

For future oil price forecasts, Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude to average $60 per barrel in 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is expected to average $56 per barrel in 2025 and $52 per barrel in 2026.

Goldman Sachs Perspective on Oil Production

Goldman Sachs is expecting OPEC+ to raise output moderately in August, followed by a more stable supply path for the rest of the year. This comes alongside their broader message: there’s plenty of oil coming from places beyond the shale basins in the U.S., and it’s proving enough to dampen hopes of a price surge. As a result, they aren’t looking for prices to ramp higher, even over the next two years.

Their price projections confirm this view. Brent crude, often seen as the global benchmark, is now forecast to average $60 per barrel in 2025. That’s not far off today’s levels, suggesting Goldman isn’t betting on any sharp price recovery. Meanwhile, WTI – more reflective of domestic U.S. conditions – is pegged slightly lower, averaging $56 for the same year. For 2026, the figures tilt downward again, with Brent seen at $56 and WTI at $52.

What does this mean for us in terms of positioning? It’s clear that expectations around tightening supply, which have often lifted futures contracts in past cycles, are now being held in check not by speculators, but by real-world production resilience. The detail worth noting is this: there’s nothing in their forecast that implies an undersupplied market in the next 24 months.

Market Implications and Strategy

Prices look capped. Not because demand is faltering, but because other producers, beyond shale, are managing to pump more even without needing higher prices as incentive. That keeps futures traders grounded. We’re not in a world with sudden tight inventories or scramble-for-barrels moments.

With volatility likely to stay measured and a consistent production story unfolding across large producers, short-term spreads may not widen dramatically. Calendar spreads look like they’ll remain in a flatter pattern. For now, we wouldn’t expect sharp shifts in the shape of the forward curve without fresh disruption.

Long bets on backwardation might be patient plays, rather than quick wins. The emphasis seems to fall on carry performance and roll yield stability rather than outright moves. At the same time, headline-driven price breaks are less likely to persist unless they’re backed by structural shifts – and we have no such signs in the numbers put forward.

In summary, these forecasts paint a clear picture of balance: one where supply side comfort is the overriding message. Positions should reflect a market with capped upside, modest carry, and limited directional shock potential.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.