Walmart’s stock improved in Thursday’s afternoon session after an initial drop of over 5% despite exceeding first-quarter expectations. The company reported an adjusted EPS of $0.61, surpassing the projected $0.58, and revenue of $165.6 billion, over $2 billion more than anticipated.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which includes Walmart, also rebounded, gaining 0.4% in the afternoon. A report showed wholesale prices fell more than expected, though US Retail Sales for April increased just 0.1% month-on-month, affecting overall sentiment.

Ecommerce Growth And International Performance

Walmart’s quarter saw a 22% annual rise in Global eCommerce and a 50% surge in international advertising revenues. US comparable sales rose 4.5% year-on-year, surpassing the 3.9% forecast. US transactions and average tickets experienced yearly increases, although international sales decreased 0.3%.

Walmart’s leadership anticipates price rises due to tariffs, leading to withheld EPS and operating income guidance for Q2, though $167.8 billion in revenue is expected. Full-year net sales are forecast to grow by 3%-4% with operating income gains of 3.5%-5.5%.

Walmart’s stock needs to surpass the $100 mark convincingly for renewed bullish momentum. The 200-day Simple Moving Average’s proximity to the 50-day counterpart could impact the share price.

Overall, the company’s performance during the first quarter exceeded expectations on most fronts. It posted stronger-than-forecast earnings per share and revenue figures, with sales coming in more than $2 billion above estimates. Despite this, the stock initially fell sharply, which reflects a disconnection between strong headline numbers and underlying investor concerns. That reaction, however, proved short-lived once sentiment stabilised throughout the session, aided by improved macroeconomic signals—particularly the cooler-than-expected wholesale prices.

What stands out is that while revenue climbed, international performance was less upbeat. There was a 0.3% dip in international sales, suggesting softer activity abroad despite robust growth in global eCommerce and a remarkable jump in international ad revenue. Front-line consumer activity in the US, on the other hand, remained healthy. Transactions were up, as were average spend values, which together underscore broad-based demand resilience.

Future Outlook And Market Reactions

On to the outlook. Management has flagged the potential impact of rising import costs tied to tariffs, which introduces an element of earnings risk in the near term. Notably, they’ve opted to hold back specific EPS and operating income guidance for the upcoming quarter. This is worth tracking because it indicates apprehension around input costs or consumer sensitivity to rising prices. However, the revenue target of nearly $168 billion suggests confidence in topline stability, even if margins come under pressure.

Their full-year forecast calls for moderate sales growth of three to four percent with operating income expected to rise slightly faster, pointing to margin strength somewhere in the model—likely leaning on ad revenue or tech-driven efficiencies. Still, all of this has to clear the technical barrier around the $100 mark. Until price action solidly breaks and holds above that level, momentum remains at risk of fading. The positioning of the 200- and 50-day SMAs near current levels introduces a volatility risk, particularly with automatic strategies calibrated to those curves.

With wholesale prices printing lower, and April retail sales coming in barely positive, rate-sensitive instruments should be monitoring forward guidance charts closely. We expect participants to weigh the inflation data’s disinflationary signal more heavily when responding to these moves, especially if other data releases begin confirming the same narrative. That could mute reactions to weaker sales numbers like those observed internationally—particularly if margin expansion persists.

From our side, index inclusion brings additional variables. The Dow’s midday rebound, while modest, speaks to how influential components can skew readings. Leveraged equity exposures and option buyers that hinge on these names may need tighter hedging parameters in the coming sessions, especially ahead of tariff-related policy announcements.

The revenue surge, especially in digital segments, likely fuels confidence in more speculative call positions, though we’d caution that short-duration instruments might respond sharply if international weakness gains traction. Be alert to changes in implied volatility, particularly around earnings communications or trade-related commentary from executives. Put-call ratios around the current level should stay under review, and if we fail to see follow-through above $100, further downside collars could appear.

So we will be watching volume patterns, rolling correlations with broader equity benchmarks, and any compression in ATM option premiums. If these narrow further without confirming moves in the underlying asset, risk lies in being positioned too heavily toward a breakout that hasn’t settled.

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