Insights 
VT 
The USDCAD pairing has been rising after a period of lower lows, which quickly reversed, indicating weak seller commitment. Post-FOMC rate decision, broad US dollar buying helped the pair climb above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, positioned at 1.38107 and 1.38313. Earlier today, a small dip was bought into, a positive indicator.
The current price has encountered a ceiling between 1.38917 and 1.3904, a key zone acting as a range high for weeks that now serves as a crucial barrier. Surpassing 1.3904 could lead the price towards the next resistance zone between 1.3924 and 1.3933. Beyond this, the target would be the April 15 high at 1.3977, followed by significant resistance around 1.4000, which includes the 38.2% retracement from April’s decline and the 200-day moving average.
Support and Resistance Levels
The support level from recent highs last Thursday is at 1.3860, while additional support lies between 1.3810 and 1.3821, corresponding to the 100/200-hour moving averages. Resistance levels include the April ceiling at 1.38917–1.3904, a swing area at 1.3924–1.3933, the April 15 high of 1.3977, and the psychological level at 1.4000–1.4003.
What we’re seeing now in this pairing is a reassertion of bullish control following a sharp reversal from earlier lows—a kind of breakdown that failed to gather steam, likely due to diminishing seller pressure. After the latest Federal Open Market Committee rate outcome, broader appetite for the greenback re-emerged with strength, pushing the pair clear of both short-term trend proxies at 1.38107 and 1.38313. This move above the 100- and 200-hour lines reflects a renewed willingness to buy, not simply a short-term rebound.
Earlier today, even as prices momentarily softened, buyers stepped in quickly, reinforcing the broader move higher. This willingness to lean into dips rather than run from them implies we are seeing interest that extends beyond intraday speculative activity. Dip buying, especially near prior technical congestion, tends to signal directional preference.
Key Price Zones
We’re now encountering a zone that has repeatedly halted advances—the 1.38917 to 1.3904 boundary. It’s been a range top through most of recent weeks. Breaks above have so far been short-lived, making it a stubborn price area. However, should momentum carry price action beyond this point in clear and extended fashion, it opens the way towards 1.3924 to 1.3933. These levels were previously active on both the way down and throughout subsequent testing, making them relevant resistance.
That said, attention will likely shift to the high posted on April 15 at 1.3977 should these hurdles fall. What makes this level notable is not just the price history, but how little time was spent trading there—an indication the market might want to revisit unfinished business. Beyond that lies a psychological magnet at 1.4000, underpinned structurally by the 38.2% retracement of the broader decline in April and aligned with the longer-term 200-day moving average. These dual layers of confluence mean any price close to that band could prompt opposing flows—profit-taking, re-hedging, or fresh positioning altogether.
Support is now defined in more immediate terms. The prior breakout zone at 1.3860, which held sellers last Thursday, is the first test. Failure to hold here may not spark sudden reversal, but it would erode short-term control. Beneath lies the narrower range between 1.3810 and 1.3821, marked by ongoing alignment with the hourly 100- and 200-period averages. If price decays back into this structure, it reflects reduced urgency among buyers and may shift the balance temporarily.
For our part, responses at 1.3904 will act as a short-term bellwether. Experience tells us a clean break needs confirmation—not simply a one-hour flirtation, but a stretch of higher closes beyond that band. Should that unfold, we pre-empt upside movement and reassess positioning towards the next resistance clusters. If moves falter repeatedly at familiar highs, we reconsider exposure and potentially unwind size into that pressure. What matters now is whether appetite remains intact among those driving spot above its recent upper ranges. We keep risk tight near defined barriers, keep alerts on steep retracements, and watch volume closely as levels approach.
