Insights 
VT 
EURUSD has dropped below the key floor support and the 38.2% retracement level. Current resistance levels are set at 1.1250, followed by 1.1265-1.1275. For sellers to gain more control, it is critical to remain below these levels.
The EURUSD also experienced a downside break as attention shifts towards the EU, potentially vulnerable to US policies. Technically, this break occurred below important support levels.
Risk Defining Zone Breached
The low prices from April 15 and May 1 at 1.1265 have been breached. Earlier, the 61.8% retracement from the 2020 high at 1.1271 and the swing high from 2023 at 1.2754 were surpassed, marking the 1.1265-1.1275 range as a risk-defining zone for those anticipating further declines.
Moreover, the broken 38.2% retracement of the upward trend from March 27 provides a closer risk level at 1.27505. Staying under this level allows sellers to push prices lower.
The subsequent key target is the 50% midpoint at 1.11509, which sellers aim to reach to regain control. Achieving this level reflects sellers’ ambition for continued downward momentum.
What we see here is a break in trend after an extended move higher, with prices sinking below formerly reliable support levels. The currency pair has dropped beneath both the 38.2% retracement and the prior swing levels with little resistance. These breaks tell us that some underlying confidence in support has weakened, perhaps due to broader macro developments that now favour downside pressure.
There is a particular urgency for sellers now to maintain control below 1.1275. That zone had functioned as a technical barrier in earlier phases—breaching that was one of the first signs of waning buyer commitment. We’ve crossed through it without much pause this time, and now that range serves the opposite purpose: not as a floor, but a ceiling.
Next Key Target
The spot level near 1.1150, representing a 50% pullback from the March advance, becomes the next focal area. Not just technically neat, but also psychologically clean—midpoints often are. If we can land below this mark, conviction for deeper follow-through increases. It clears the road for sellers to methodically test further zones of interest, particularly those that align with early-year range consolidations.
We also need to pay attention to how quickly price responds if challenged near prior resistance—especially above 1.1250. A sluggish reaction or hesitancy just under that zone would support continuation lower. Any sudden rallies back into the old support-converted-resistance zone of 1.1265-1.1275 would need watching, as that could either mark a false breakout or simply a short-term reset before sellers re-engage.
The technical evidence so far suggests momentum is now owned by sellers, but that strength lives only as long as price fails to reclaim those broken levels. We’ve found that short-lived rallies frequently offer opportunity, particularly when broader sentiment aligns. Timing remains delicate—swift bounces should not be dismissed, but only taken seriously if paired with sustained closes above prior resistance.
The drop below the retracement from March 27 has opened the door for further tactical downside. To us, this isn’t causing uncertainty, but defining a roadmap. Areas like 1.1150 are not hypothetical anymore—they are levels buyers must defend decisively or risk watching the pair drift toward older lows.
This kind of action has been consistent with market behaviour during uneven transatlantic policy narratives. Risk is easier to define now, and as long as we do not see a sustained close above the earlier support band turned resistance, downside conviction remains the more responsive posture. Buying here, in contrast, becomes a hope-driven trade without the protection of key technical floors.
