XP Inc.A reported quarterly earnings of $0.39 per share, surpassing the anticipated $0.38 per share. This is an increase from the $0.37 per share from the previous year.

The earnings surprise for this quarter was 2.63%. A notable contrast was a previous quarter’s expectation of $1.39 per share, where the actual earnings were $0.38, showing a surprise of -72.66%. Over the last four quarters, the company exceeded consensus EPS estimates once.

XP Inc.A, in the Financial – Miscellaneous Services industry, announced revenues of $740.99 million, underperforming the anticipated $777.04 million by 4.55%. Compared to a year earlier, revenue was $818.21 million. The company has exceeded revenue expectations three times in the past four quarters.

Shares of XP Inc.A have risen by about 57.2% year-to-date against the S&P 500’s 1.4% increase. The stock’s movement depends on future earnings expectations and management’s commentary.

Future consensus EPS estimate stands at $0.39 on $803.44 million in revenues for the next quarter, and $1.60 on $3.25 billion for the fiscal year. The Financial – Miscellaneous Services industry ranks in the bottom 45% of over 250 Zacks industries, affecting stock performance.

Eagle Point, another finance sector stock, will report its quarterly earnings soon, expected at $0.26 per share and projecting $52.95 million in revenues, a 29.8% increase from last year.

XP Inc.A managed to outperform earnings predictions by a narrow margin this quarter, reporting $0.39 per share—slightly ahead of the expected $0.38. While that may not seem like much at first glance, it’s quite a different picture when compared to their massive miss in a previous quarter—where the market was braced for $1.39, but got just $0.38 instead. That steep disappointment had made it harder for investors to rely on the projections, and this recent beat, however small, stands out more sharply because of that.

Revenue, on the other hand, came in soft. The firm brought in $740.99 million, short of the projected $777.04 million. More interestingly, it was down from last year’s revenue in the same quarter. This means that while the bottom line was slightly better, the top line is still under pressure, which raises some red flags for forward momentum.

If we take a longer view, over the past year, the company only beat EPS estimates once in the past four quarters. From this, it’s clear that forecasting consistency remains a concern. But despite this, shares are up more than 57% since the start of the year—an impressive rise when you compare it to the broader S&P 500’s modest gain. That type of move isn’t solely about earnings; it often suggests that expectations, sentiment, or speculative flows are playing a big part.

Looking ahead, the market expects $0.39 EPS again in the next quarter, alongside a revenue estimate of just over $803 million. The full-year expectation sits at $1.60 in earnings and $3.25 billion in revenue. These figures suggest that analysts are expecting a relatively steady climb, although past performance makes it hard to judge these as overly conservative or aggressive.

One key point is the peer group performance. The broader industry, which ranks in the lower half of more than 250 sub-sectors, could pose a constraint. When you’re operating in a space that isn’t drawing wide investor appeal, stock-specific catalysts tend to matter more, and that usually leaves little room for any corporate missteps.

It’s worth paying attention to other players in the sector now. Eagle Point, for instance, is due to report soon, with earnings forecast at $0.26 on revenue just over $52 million. That’s a hefty near-30% increase in revenue from a year before, and it points towards some firms in the sector still managing robust growth—even if others are struggling.

Given the above, the prudent path forward involves positioning tactically, with a keen eye on earnings quality and consistency. Monitoring how companies execute versus guidance carries more weight than usual, especially as broader sentiment can fuel abrupt moves in price. While some will fixate on headline beats or misses, we’re likely to focus more on the rhythm between revenue trends, profit margins, and the expectations priced in by the market. In this environment, thin earnings surprises could still move the needle—but only if they’re part of a pattern the market trusts.