Bitcoin futures are trading at around $104,265, slightly below the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $104,530. This indicates mild bearish momentum, though it is tentative since the session is still ongoing.

For May 12, 2025, a bullish position is above $104,735, surpassing the developing Value Area High (VAH) of $104,630. Bullish targets are $105,200, $105,540, and $108,200. A bearish position is below $103,920, under today’s Value Area Low (VAL) at $104,070, with targets of $103,590, $103,140, $102,360, $101,850, and $100,450.

The analysis uses volume profile strategies, pointing to areas with significant historical trading activity. VWAP serves as an average price level weighted by trade volume, acting as a benchmark in price trends.

Bitcoin has recently crossed the $100,000 level, a major psychological barrier. Markets often revisit such milestones, potentially causing volatility. Medium-term trends suggest possible consolidation around $100,000, while the long-term outlook leans towards revisiting the historical high near $110,150.

Traders should watch key levels, considering partial profit-taking and remaining flexible. Proper risk management is essential, using tradeCompass analysis to guide decisions while adapting to market conditions.

This analysis outlines the present tension between price levels and traded volume. The marginally lower futures price compared to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) hints at declining confidence in current upward momentum, though the market has not yet made a decisive move. The reference to a developing value area reveals where the majority of activity has clustered—above or below this zone will likely shape the next direction.

We’ve taken note of how traders have responded near the $104,735 and $103,920 range. These figures become pivot points not because of chart patterns alone, but due to the thick concentration of past trades, suggesting they matter to institutions and algorithmic strategies alike. Once price moves away from these pockets—either above or below—the next levels tend to appear quickly, leading to bursts of activity.

Lu suggests entry above or below these boundaries, with clear exits offensively positioned. The upside path, mapped out decisively at $105,200, then $105,540 and even up to $108,200, creates a setup that could gather steam swiftly if buyers step in. On the downside, however, we have dense target placements every few hundred dollars. These are no throwaway zones—they’re likely tied to prior high-volume floors that were eroded and are now vulnerable again.

The crossing over $100,000 has placed Bitcoin into an unfamiliar psychological range. When assets cross such well-watched prices, they tend to pause and recalibrate as traders reassess. That behaviour is what drove volume surges in prior sessions and is expected again here. Once price stabilises above or below this level with conviction, we might see larger moves that don’t reverse as quickly.

Meanwhile, median-term strategies should expect tightening ranges. That would point to rotational play—fading the extremes and holding limited exposure overnight. However, long-term signals still lean quietly towards higher ground near $110,150, reflecting broader risk appetite rather than short-term exhaustion.

As we’ve observed, large moves don’t typically begin without a reaction from VWAP or developing value zones. These are tools which help us decide whether recent price moves are gathering follow-through or simply returning to fair value. Without that context, positions become guesswork.

In practice, managing entries selectively—at known price clusters rather than chasing strength—has produced fewer whipsaws. Fast entries and partial exits into strength have worked where levels were clearly mapped. Breakout entries into illiquid zones above $108,000—or below $100,000—require reduced sizing due to velocity risk.

Risk control remains tight. We’ve maintained hard stops just beyond low-volume pockets, allowing positions room to breathe yet tightening faster near expected exit zones to guard gains. Trading turns less forgiving near trapped volume and quickly punishes hesitation when volatility returns.

Reading order flow this week may carry more weight than usual. We’ll allow reaction time at these areas instead of guessing intent. Patience here doesn’t mean inactivity—it means choosing carefully, showing up where the tape turns active, and letting earlier planning dictate size.