Insights 
VT 
Crude oil futures settled at $63.15, increasing by $0.52 or 0.82%. The highest price reached today was $63.64, while the lowest was $62.78.
The price remains below the 50% retracement level of $64.71 from the 2020 low. On April 23, there was a brief climb above this level to $64.83 before falling back, marking this level as a technical barrier.
Geopolitical Impact on Market Sentiment
Geopolitical factors may affect market sentiment, as Ukraine and Russia are planning talks. There is uncertainty about the attendance of prominent figures such as President Putin and former President Trump.
Market support is building due to a reassessment of recession threats. The latest U.S. crude oil inventory report disclosed an unexpected increase of 3.454 million barrels, contrary to a predicted draw of 1.078 million. Concurrently, gasoline inventories saw a larger-than-anticipated drop of 1.022 million barrels, signifying continued strong demand.
The price movement seen in crude oil futures reveals a cautiously advancing market still reacting to technical constraints and conflicting signals. At $63.15, futures have edged up modestly—though not with the strength to clear the resistance around the mid-point retracement from 2020. That $64.71 level, breached ever so briefly a few sessions ago, continues to act as a technical ceiling, reinforced by the swift rejection back below it once crossed. The market recognises this repeated reaction as evidence of unresolved sentiment about the current trend’s momentum.
From a broader standpoint, the discussion between Eastern European officials has triggered a reassessment of political risk by market participants. Though the likelihood of either leader actually attending remains unclear, their absence would leave diplomatic progress in a kind of limbo. The markets, as ever, dislike ambiguity. That lack of resolution is reflected in the tepid nature of today’s climb, as traders hold back from aggressive positioning.
At the same time, optimism has crept in from an unexpected direction—recession expectations are being re-evaluated. The stronger signals in petrol demand came through sharply in the inventory adjustments announced in the U.S. figures. The draw in gasoline stockpiles surpassed forecasts by over 500,000 barrels, which shows that consumers continue to fuel up—an important piece of evidence arguing against any assumptions of an economic slowdown. On the flip side, the climb of more than 3 million barrels in crude supply was the opposite of what was projected. This divergence implies that while refineries are still turning crude into products at a high rate, domestic production or import adjustments may be creating a build-up that was not previously priced in.
Balancing Supply and Demand
We now see a pressure point between supply-side rebalancing and continued demand. That pressure has to resolve itself over the next fortnight, particularly as attention will eventually shift towards forward-looking economic data and how it may feed into government and central bank decisions. A close watch should be kept on inventory changes and refining margins—both show whether current demand is being sustained or fueled by short-term cyclical behaviour.
From the charts, it’s increasingly clear that the market lacks conviction. The resistance near $64.70 has now been tested and held multiple times. This pattern, especially when repeated alongside inventory surprises, becomes a message. While the upside potential is still technically intact, the durability of any rally from here would depend on whether stockpiles begin to reflect consistent declines.
Support can be noted near $62.78—today’s low—which matches well with levels seen over the last ten trading days. That suggests a floor is forming that bulls may look to exploit if fresh buying volumes enter. This also implies that any dip to this zone might be short-lived unless accompanied by worrying signals from outside the commodity itself, such as broader economic contraction or geopolitical flare-ups.
As the talk shifts increasingly to demand indicators, positioning may skew further toward upside speculation—but only if price manages to break out of its coil. Should resistance be overcome and backed by inventory trends reversing, we may see a sharper adjustment in future contracts. Until then, short-term price movement appears likely to stay in a tight range.
We must weigh positioning carefully, particularly during data-heavy sessions when surprises have recently become more common than not. With each report, the probability of directional shifts increases, and these are rarely priced in fully beforehand. That introduces potential for volatility, especially around settlement windows.
