Insights 
VT 
US crude oil futures settled at $61.02, rising by $1.11 or 1.85% for the day. The trading day’s peak was $61.42, while the low was $59.92.
For the week, the price increased by $3.07 or 4.46%, though it previously reached a low of $55.39. This low was just above the year’s low of $55.15 seen in April and the lowest price since February 2021.
Price Rebound Indicators
The hourly chart indicates the price rebound has reached toward the 38.2% retracement of the range since April’s high of $72.22. This retracement level is at $61.63, and surpassing it may sustain a bullish trend.
On the lower side, the 100 and 200-hour moving averages hover around the $59 mark. The 100-hour moving average is showing an upward trend.
What we’ve seen recently is a firm move upward in crude oil, suggesting a degree of momentum that had been missing in prior weeks. After a rather sharp slide earlier this year, the bounce from $55.39 appears to have breathed short-term life into bullish sentiment. That wick just above the April trough at $55.15 has not only held firm but also triggered an acceleration back toward more contested price zones.
The $61.63 marker, derived from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-lows range, has emerged as a test point for buyers. This level is often assessed not only for its mathematical function but also for how market participants react when price gets there – and it’s currently acting as a reference for traders attempting to judge the strength of this recovery. If price can manage to stay above that figure convincingly and attract sustained volume, then continued upside may follow. But, it’s not simply about beating the level for a few hours — it’s whether there’s enough follow-through to hold it on a daily closing basis or higher.
Short Term Market Analysis
Meanwhile, just beneath the surface, we find a pair of trend-basing measures — the 100- and 200-hour moving averages — clustering around $59. That area provided a foundation for the midweek rally. The 100-hour average in particular is tilting upward, which hints at short-term momentum gradually turning more constructive. Areas like this often act as magnets or springboards for the price, especially when they overlap with recent reaction lows. If the bounce starts to falter, this is where we’d expect short-term supports to be engaged first.
Shorter-term participants should weigh risk around those moving averages, as any sudden drop beneath them would imply that the energy around the bounce has dissipated. In that case, we’d re-examine the price behaviour closer to $58.50 and $57.10, where prior resistance had once turned support. If nothing’s holding higher up, these would likely draw attention fast.
We find it useful to avoid getting caught up in the bigger narratives and instead narrow in on levels already acknowledged by the broader market. Once price begins to settle back inside those, especially if it does so with weak momentum, the bias often flips.
As volatility compresses and volume pockets shift, short-term positioning requires greater attention to what is happening in each hourly frame. The past few sessions suggest that momentum has picked a side — for now — but we remain alert to how quickly that can change.
The next phase isn’t about predicting the direction, but responding smartly to how price interacts with these clearly marked levels.
