The price of crude oil fell by $1.53 or 2.42%, closing at $61.62. Factors influencing the decline include the potential U.S.–Iran nuclear agreement, which may lift sanctions on Iranian oil, increasing global supply.

OPEC+ is set to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day as they continue easing previous cuts. The IEA predicts a decrease in global demand growth from 0.99M bpd in the first quarter to 0.65M bpd for the remainder of 2025. Additionally, they have revised the 2025 global supply growth forecast to 1.6M bpd from an earlier 1.2M bpd estimate. Economic factors such as tariff tensions and slowing growth worldwide are also affecting oil demand.

Oil Price Movements

Technically, oil prices dipped to test the 200-hour moving average at session lows but did not maintain the drop. Prices are now below the 100 and 200-hour moving averages. The 100-hour moving average stands at $62.12 and the 200-hour at $60.41, which will indicate potential for bullish or bearish trends depending on further movements.

With a $1.53 drop in crude, a decline of 2.42%, settling near $61.62, we’re observing market reactions sharpen in response to potential macro-level developments. The ongoing discussions around the U.S.–Iran nuclear accord, if successful, could reintroduce millions of barrels to the daily output. Traders have started pricing this into short-term expectations well before any formal agreements are signed. It’s less about anticipation, more about hedging against risk exposure linked to a possible oversupplied market.

The alliance, which has already been easing cuts gradually, appears committed to a steady increase—adding 411,000 barrels per day. This adjustment, though broadly expected, feeds into a market already wrestling with weaker demand projections. According to a fresh revision by the global energy watchdog, demand growth, initially forecast at 0.99 million barrels per day for early 2025, has now been lowered to 0.65 million for the rest of the year. Supply expectations, on the other hand, have gone in the opposite direction, bumped higher from 1.2 to 1.6 million. So we’re looking at a widening gap, something that doesn’t usually offer a supportive environment for a rally.

When we zoom in on price action, we can see where sentiment is shifting. Prices briefly dropped to the 200-hour moving average but were unable to stay there, suggesting buyers emerged around that zone. However, the fact that both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages are overhead now—$62.12 and $60.41, respectively—creates a type of squeeze. It’s exactly the sort of setup where conviction matters; either buyers start pushing prices back above those areas or sellers will find confidence in pressing further.

From a trading perspective, moving average levels tend to act like momentum thresholds. If prices manage to close above them convincingly, we might assume the pullback was temporary. If not, and especially if volume increases on another leg lower, the market may try revisiting prior support zones—more so when supply news continues to weigh.

Globally, the presence of trade hurdles and softer economic performance in some major regions is dragging expectations. That’s creating shorter-term hesitations in positioning. These aren’t temporary hurdles; weaker consumer demand, lagging industrial activity, and cautious inventory behaviour add up rather quickly. With that, it’s no stretch to say that oil markets are now being shaped more by what’s happening off the charts than on them.

Volatility And Trade Strategy

We’re also watching volatility metrics, which have started to widen modestly, showing clearer directional uncertainty than in recent weeks. This doesn’t favour momentum chasers, but it does keep short-dated options volumes active. Those of us with positions tied directly to spreads ought to reassess exposure and expiry impacts. With implied demand weakness creeping into forward curves, calendar spreads may do more heavy lifting than outright direction.

As prices hesitate at key technical points and the macro backdrop grows heavier, trade selection becomes sharper. Those watching delta or theta sensitivity will want to avoid setups that lean entirely on upward rebounds without some measure of support in underlying figures. Rapid shifts in supply acceptance may not come with warning—when barrels do return to market, it’s often in blocks and not streams.

Patience becomes practical. A market that absorbs bad news slowly often trades sideways longer than it deserves. In that space, turning points emerge less through headlines and more through inconsistencies—an inventory draw that shouldn’t have happened, or a refinery run that crept higher when analysts forecast a fall.

It’s that kind of attention to detail that can separate rushed entries from sustainable setups.

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