Insights 
VT 
The International Energy Agency reports ongoing growth in the electric vehicle market, especially in China and several emerging markets. Last year, 17 million electric vehicles were sold, marking a 25% increase from the previous year.
China led global sales with 11 million electric vehicles, where almost every second new car was electric. In contrast, growth in Europe and the US has slowed somewhat.
Projected Global Sales
The IEA projects global sales to reach 20 million EVs this year, accounting for a quarter of total car sales. By 2030, electric vehicles are predicted to comprise 40% of car sales, potentially reducing oil consumption by replacing 5 million barrels daily.
Although current electric vehicle power consumption is 0.7% of total electricity use, this is projected to rise to 2.5% by 2030. The information presented contains forward-looking elements that entail risks and uncertainties.
The data should not be interpreted as an endorsement to buy or sell any assets. Thorough research is necessary before making investment decisions, as markets profiled are informational in nature. No liability is held for any potential errors or omissions that might occur.
These figures show a sharp tilt in transport demand, especially with China far ahead of the pack. With nearly half of new car purchases now electric there, the rate of replacement for petrol and diesel models is speeding up faster than expected. What stands out is not just the volume but the pace — it’s been maintained even as policy incentives shift and local competition intensifies.
Implications For Energy And Commodities
Meanwhile, the contrast in the US and parts of Europe is worth watching closely. The slowdown points more to short-term hesitation than structural plateauing. Infrastructure bottlenecks and cost concerns continue to weigh on sentiment, particularly outside urban centres. However, this does not mean growth has vanished — it has merely adjusted to economic realities, particularly in a high-rate environment. These areas may return to a faster trajectory once vehicle costs fall further and charging networks expand.
At a projected 20 million electric vehicles to be sold this year, the market is fast approaching a milestone where one in every four new cars is electric globally, not just in early-adopter countries. That level has implications far beyond auto sales — we’re looking at ripple effects in power generation, battery metals, and, not least, petroleum consumption. Specifically, if the 2030 target of 40% market share holds, that would displace up to 5 million barrels of oil each day. This is not an abstract change; it hits fuel margins, transport hedges, and even shipping costs where diesel exposure is high.
Energy traders should already be seeing some of these effects in medium-term futures pricing and volatility around crude benchmarks. The linkage between auto sales and real oil demand is long established, and while substitution rates vary depending on regional electricity mixes, there are broad implications for fuel traders, especially those exposed to urban delivery fleets and passenger transport.
Looking at the power grid side, today’s electric vehicles form a comparatively small slice of total electricity draw — about 0.7%. Yet by the end of the decade that figure could climb to 2.5%. While that sounds modest at first glance, it introduces increased strain during peak hours and changes the base load expectations in areas with dense EV adoption. What we may see is growing divergence between regions that welcome this demand and those still struggling to modernise their electricity infrastructure.
We’ve also observed how this growth brings fresh attention to battery supply chains. Price movements in lithium, cobalt, and nickel are no longer just reflection of mining conditions but are now tied more closely to vehicle demand curves. With many commodity markets already pricing in a constrained supply scenario, there’s a path here where battery material derivatives remain busy. For traders in long-dated contracts or cross-asset exposures, there may be value in calibration — not just following crude but viewing it alongside battery-linked commodities, especially if changes in subsidies and tax policies alter sales forecasts.
Forward estimates naturally carry uncertainty; projections do not always match outcomes. However, such models serve to frame market direction — in this case, a steady decline in combustion engine reliance, layered with rising power impacts and pressure on raw materials. Timing will matter, especially in terms of contract structure. Shifts won’t be uniform — they hit clusters in waves.
Monitoring regional trade data for electric vehicles, alongside energy imports and battery module shipments, will help anticipate near-term stresses and opportunities. Trading strategies constrained to static interpretations of oil or refined products may fall behind unless they factor in consumption rotation and supply friction in adjacent sectors.
