Insights 
VT 
Canada’s S&P TSX index reached a new all-time high at 25,889.46, closing at 25,882.41, up 190 points or 0.74% for the day. Previously, the high was 25,875.61 on 30th January, with another notable point at 25,808.25.
After the January peak, the index dropped by 14.10%, retracing around 50% of the upward movement from October 2023 before rebounding to new highs. The index has increased by 4.69% this trading year, following a rise of 17.99% in 2024.
Us Indices Performance
The US major indices showed gains on the same day. The Dow industrial average rose by 215 points or 0.51%, reaching 42,266.78. The S&P index increased by 28.23 points or 0.48% to 5,921, while the NASDAQ index climbed by 44.47 points or 0.23% to 19,191.71.
In 2025, the Dow and NASDAQ remain negative, but the S&P index shows a positive trend. Year-to-date in 2025, the Dow is down 0.70%, the S&P index is up 0.65%, and the NASDAQ is down 0.63%. For 2024, these indices had impressive increases, with the Dow up 12.88%, S&P up 23.31%, and NASDAQ up 28.64%.
This article tells us that Canada’s primary equity index has managed to set a new peak, edging past its previous record from late January. That previous high had marked a resistance point until now. Following that, markets experienced a pronounced downward correction — specifically, a fall of just over 14%. That sized drop is not unusual and fits cleanly with a technical retracement of the rally that began in October of last year. From that low, prices gradually regained lost ground, eventually pushing beyond January’s top.
So far this year, the index has added just under five percent, which may seem modest compared with the double-digit surge in the previous year, but it suggests that the upward momentum is still persisting, albeit more measured. Typically, after a year of strong performance like 2024, it’s not abnormal for gains to come at a slower pace. The key idea here is that prices are not falling away after touching previous highs — they’re instead building on them.
Market Trends and Volatility
Across our southern border, the major US indices had another day of climbing, with the Dow, S&P and the tech-heavy NASDAQ all closing higher. While Tuesday’s moves were relatively contained, they extended a broader trend of tentative optimism. However, when we glance at the numbers from the start of this year, only one of those indices — the broad-based S&P — is running ahead. This tells us that price action has been very specific and probably driven by selective sector strength, rather than uniform buying across the board.
If we look back at 2024, the growth in US equity benchmarks was far above historical averages, especially in the NASDAQ which had led with gains of nearly 29 percent. When such strong prior-year performances take place, there’s often a digestion period — a sort of pausing — before the next clear leg of movement emerges.
Now, if we step into the position of market participants in derivatives who monitor these patterns and price levels closely, these movements suggest that confidence hasn’t fully left risk assets. What matters here is not just the higher closes, but how calculated and orderly they’ve been. No panic buying, no signs of runaway moves — just steady ticks higher.
With that in mind, given where these indices are now trading relative to their prior peaks and post-correction lows, we’re likely watching for stability in key support zones before establishing any new directional conviction. The reflexive nature of equity indices to reset before embarking on another directional push is something we’ve seen play out over countless quarters.
This also brings attention to how volatility should behave. If realised volatility remains contained, and no spike appears unexpectedly on the horizon, pricing in lower downside premiums might make sense. That is particularly so if we see call spreads begin widening across contracts, which we’re inclined to monitor next.
One cannot ignore the tendency for traders to overreact to modest macro updates during quieter periods — especially in early Q2. So when we price forward volatility or directional bets, it’s worth considering that markets like these, that have managed to scale or hold above previous highs after retracements, are unlikely to break down immediately unless a fresh trigger emerges. Spotting that shift in tone will remain our task going ahead.
