Insights 
VT 
The USDJPY experienced selling pressure, but support was found at the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, with the low reaching 142.89. This failure to drop further spurred buyers into action, pushing prices higher.
The price then ascended towards the 100-bar moving average at 143.953 on the 4-hour chart, surpassing the 200-hour moving average at 143.51 before reaching a high of 143.88. These price points paint a broader picture of market dynamics related to Federal Reserve considerations.
Federal Reserve Sentiments
The Federal Reserve Chair remains uncertain about future economic expectations, but there is a slight inclination towards a downside risk. The market movements in the USDJPY seem to reflect these broader economic sentiments.
This existing portion tells us that there was a moment where sellers had the upper hand with the USDJPY pair, but not for long. Once price action touched the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour timeframe—specifically at 142.89—it rebounded. That level acted like a floor. Sellers either lost conviction or took profits, while buyers saw an opportunity and stepped in. The rebound wasn’t just a random move; it reestablished a short-term floor in alignment with a widely watched technical indicator.
As price continued upward momentum, it moved through several other moving averages—things many of us watch closely for confirmation. It pierced the 200-hour line at 143.51 with a degree of energy and reached 143.88, which is close to, but not quite touching, the 100-bar on the 4-hour chart at 143.953. When levels that previously acted as resistance begin to break or approach re-test, they often tell a story about sentiment becoming less defensive and more constructive, driven in part by expectations forming around central bank cues.
Powell’s remarks added texture to this backdrop. He didn’t give strong direction, but what did emerge was a tone that hinted at some vulnerability in the economic outlook. He acknowledged underlying softness without fully committing to a dovish path. From our perspective, that cautious tone interacts with yield movements, and by extension affects dollar strength. Treasury markets seem to be factoring in reduced forward guidance certainty, which translates into an environment where currency ranges can react more sharply to data than to speeches alone.
Strategic Market Considerations
In the coming days, it would be prudent to keep a close eye on the reaction around those key levels identified earlier. Repeated testing of the 143.95 zone without rejection would suggest the market isn’t as hesitant anymore. Should price hold above the 200-hour average and push above that marker, momentum could gather pace and targets could be adjusted upward, though not before seeing how upcoming data points align with what Powell hesitated to commit to.
Volume behaviour around these levels will matter next. If moves occur on thin trading, we treat that differently than if they’re supported by broad participation. During periods of policy ambiguity, shorter timeframes often help us to pick up on shifts in positioning that would otherwise only become apparent after the fact.
Looking back at 142.89, it now acts as a reference. Not just a number, but a test of will. Should anything send us there again, how the market behaves in that zone will carry more importance now that it has proven itself once already. Stops, if they exist for trend-followers, likely sit tight around there, and the absence of new lows adds comfort for those holding from below.
One thing we’re all working around is that economic tone isn’t easing into clarity yet. The chair isn’t committing because the numbers themselves haven’t provided enough evidence. While the dollar has moved accordingly, it isn’t moving with one-sided confidence, which means each retracement or attempted breakout fits more within technical cues. So, respecting recent support-resistance bands will help more than speculating on a policy pivot.
From a strategy viewpoint, we’re viewing price touches to the upside as chances to revisit shorter timeframe indicators in tandem with sessions out of Asia. Early signs of risk sentiment have been expressing themselves quicker across the yen in particular, which may allow for earlier positioning ahead of European flows.
Watching whether 143.51 becomes the staging ground for either consolidation or exhaustion will reveal if buyer conviction is broadening or fading. All of this, of course, before the next data release rewrites expectations—again. Until then, the levels speak clearer than the forecasts.
