Insights 
VT 
The Euro experienced erratic trading on Friday, initially declining due to the threat of a 50% tariff on EU goods. This loss was reversed as the US Dollar weakened, leaving the Euro at 1.1379.
The EU expressed its commitment to securing a trade deal with the US, aiming for mutual respect rather than threats. The US had previously considered raising tariffs on EU goods, with the deadline extended to 9 July.
Euro Resistance And Support Levels
Risk for the Euro is tilted upwards, although price action remained restrained among major currencies. Resistance levels are at 1.1420/30, with a breakthrough leading to 1.1570.
Failure to break resistance may lead to a return to recent trading ranges. Support levels include 1.1280, 1.1235, and 1.1150, drawing on moving averages and Fibonacci retracement principles.
That the Euro wobbled at first before recovering says a great deal about the current pace of global sentiment—short bursts of fear followed by a recalibration as new information filters in. We saw the drop tied specifically to unilateral tariff threats—essentially the kind of statement that sends models scrambling but rarely reshapes trend unless followed through. Yet, weakness from the dollar side, rather than strength from within the Eurozone, offered the real lift. That matters if you’re watching this cross for more than just short-lived swings.
When we say the risk is tilted upwards, what we mean is this: buyers are slowly putting more weight behind the Euro. But we haven’t punched through those clear resistance levels at 1.1420 and 1.1430. Those are where short sellers tend to cluster, knowing there’s a confluence of technical interest. If those levels clear, you’re not looking at marginal gains—you’re potentially watching volume accelerate towards that wider move up to 1.1570, where longer-term bets start to settle in.
Market Behavior Insights
But if that doesn’t happen, it’s likely we drift lower. In that case, expect the Euro to retreat quietly, pulling back through the layered supports. At 1.1280, there’s some cushion from short-term averages. A trip to 1.1235 and further to 1.1150 means the bounce on Friday didn’t change market structure, it just entertained it briefly. That’s where those Fibonacci levels come in—they aren’t predictive so much as reflective of what traders want to see and whether they have the conviction to act when price approaches them.
Very few are reaching for positions with blind confidence here. But a pause at resistance can offer tight setups for short-dated instruments, provided you’re disciplined with the risk. The wider macro signals continue to drive the underlying tone, but the more immediate opportunities are shaping up against these pre-defined boundaries. What we watch most over the coming sessions is not just whether price breaks, but how participation responds—volume, breadth, even intraday correlation with equities and debt markets.
Tariff threats, like the one carried into Friday’s open, can produce reactions that are sharp but rarely sustained unless policy follows rhetoric. That said, with the 9 July extension still carrying weight, we might see squares ahead of the date, especially in shorter-dated volatility structures. There’s room here to lean into spreads rather than outright directional plays.
