The S&P 500 Futures have key levels to monitor, with the major resistance at 6,000, alongside other levels including a secondary support at 5,917. The Volume Profile’s point of control (POC) is around 5,904, essential for maintaining bullish momentum.

Despite a recent pullback, the uptrend continues, as the price remains above the VWAP mid-line. A decline below 5,969 suggests profit-taking, setting up for a Monday test of the POC/VWAP.

Scenarios For Bullish And Bearish Trends

For bullish scenarios, a reclaim of 5,960 could lead to targets of 6,000. Alternatively, a bounce from 5,904 could aim towards 5,932. For bearish situations, a retreat from the 5,969–5,977 zone could target 5,904, or a break below 5,904 could reach lower levels like 5,870.

Risk management advises keeping trade risks below 1% and using volume for entry confirmation. Attention to geopolitical influences is suggested due to the impact on the market’s open. Pricing is subject to change, and trading in foreign exchange can involve below-risk considerations, including leverage effects. Caution is advised, considering the possibility of total investment loss.

What we’ve seen over the past sessions is a steady grind upwards, even as short-term corrective movements have entered the picture. The index remains comfortably positioned above the VWAP’s mid-line, which strengthens the broader bullish argument—at least for now. The most immediate takeaway is that, though price has cooled from its recent highs, we haven’t observed a structural shift in direction. Momentum, while having flattened somewhat, hasn’t reversed.

Smaller timeframes reflect a degree of hesitation between the 5,960 and 5,977 region. This zone has become an active battleground. If current levels fail to hold and we slip beneath 5,969, we expect more mechanical players to step aside temporarily, triggering downside motion. This introduces the possibility of a move toward the POC near 5,904, which remains an area of balanced activity. In straightforward terms, buyers and sellers seem to agree most at that price, making it a likely candidate for reaction should momentum fade further.

Jackson’s earlier guidance on risk suggests limiting exposure to below 1% per position, particularly during overlapping data periods or when liquidity thins out, such as the tail end of New York hours. When set against increased volatility, as seen last week during unexpected foreign policy headlines, this advice becomes more than textbook caution—it’s actionable strategy.

Approaching Potential Market Moves

As for setups moving into next week, if price retests 5,904 and generates buy interest—ideally through a spike in volume crossing a 15-minute VWAP—there’s an opportunity to aim back toward 5,932. Should 5,960 fold back under pressure early Monday, then what had looked like bullish consolidation could switch to directional shorts. Much of this depends not on sentiment, but how aggressively price interacts with the volume-weighted levels.

Patel’s suggestion that the bounce near 5,917 formed a structural support carries merit, especially as it’s aligned with the lower volume node from last Thursday’s session. We lean towards a watch-and-wait approach here—only initiating positions when clear rejection of highs or lows is confirmed by order flow. It’s tempting to pre-empt moves, but thin-volume fills have led to slippage and unconvincing breakouts.

This environment favours decision-making based on real-time data, not static assumptions. We’re approaching zones where options positioning, especially around the psychological 6,000 mark, could lead to pinning effects. We recommend tracking the changes in open interest daily across weekly expiries, which often cues short gamma-driven moves especially on Mondays and Thursdays.

Given how geopolitical events influenced last week’s market reaction, staying informed of international developments remains essential. This includes not only headline risk but also early indications from currency markets, which often sniff out risk sentiment changes before index futures respond. If slight downticks in risk assets coincide with widening spreads or accelerated yen strength, it’s worth reconsidering any aggressive long entries near resistance areas.

For any momentum-based execution, waiting for volume confirmation—volume being above the rolling session average—is not just a safety net but a filtering tool. Without it, legitimate signals become indistinct from noise. Let participant activity validate the bias before acting.

What streams through each of these triggers is not binary—but a probability-weighted idea set. Moves toward 5,870 or above 6,000 require more than directional conviction; they require liquidity confluence and trader commitment. Let’s focus on behaving like observers first, then participants. When liquidity tightens, emotional reaction needs to be the last response.

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